#杰克逊霍尔会议
Tonight, when both bulls and bears are foolish
Currently, the ETF hype for BTC and ETH is very high, and their movements are increasingly following the U.S. stock market.
Tonight, Powell's speech is crucial; as long as it is not too hawkish, the market will likely interpret it positively. If so, the channel structure can continue, U.S. stocks will maintain their strength, and cryptocurrencies will continue to strengthen.
The first support level since the significant rise of BTC has been broken. The support of the box range has not yet been broken, but from the OBV, there are indeed signs of small distribution of chips. Tonight, we will see if any major negative news arises during the meeting, which could accelerate the distribution and officially enter the technical correction phase.
For ETH, from a three-day line perspective, the two major segments of the increase are basically consistent, with an increase of around 102%. The key issue now is: is this a major 4th wave correction, or does it continue to stabilize and extend the major 3rd wave upward?
1. The 4000-4200 range has not been broken, still regarded as a strong consolidation, remains a short entry point (if the speech is dovish, then continue to play music and dance).
2. If the speech is hawkish 🦅, the September interest rate cut bets drop from 50 to 25 or if there is no rate cut in September, then adjust the overall fundamentals by 20-30%.
So the overall logic is: Tonight's meeting is a critical watershed; not hawkish → strong continuation; hawkish → may officially enter the correction cycle.
