Recently, many people have been asking me: Is the bull market still on?
In fact, watching the ups and downs every day has long drained my mentality; even if opportunities are right in front of me, I can easily miss them. I’ve taken a lot of detours myself to realize that mindset is more important than numbers. I held onto Ray, PEPE, SOL, DOGE, and ADA this round, and I reaped decent rewards; but for OKB, which had a massive surge, I didn't hold on, and after selling, it tripled. Looking back, of course, it’s regrettable, but there's no point in regretting.
The logic of the market is simple: a decline is an opportunity for smart people to profit, and when whales offload, it’s often taken up by larger funds. Each correction in a bull market comes with countless negative news, which retail investors naturally doubt, but that’s just the rhythm of a bull market.
Remember this: Don't be scared away by short-term fluctuations; grasp the present to truly feel at ease throughout this market cycle.
It's Friday today, and little cat is going to the bar tonight. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment or contact me~ I will respond when I see it! Today, I will discuss the logic of market operations with you, so you can have some confidence and smoothly get through this bull market.
A bull market is basically divided into three stages:
Accumulation Phase: Only those who can control the market and experienced investors have the ability to accumulate chips at the bottom.
Public Participation Phase: The market begins to be driven by ordinary investors.
Distribution Phase: New retail investors take over, and whales begin to gradually offload their holdings.
Many people panic when they see whales offloading; in fact, don't let a single piece of news lead you around. The price shown by candlestick charts is the transaction price—prices only form when someone buys. Most retail investors are often unfamiliar with the market, and there’s also a game among whales; under a zero-sum game, profit is not fixed.
Whales' Holding Logic
Different levels of whales operate differently:
1,000-10,000 BTC: Small institutions or small whales, with a decreasing amount of holdings.
10,000-100,000 BTC: Large institutions and exchanges' cold wallets, with an increasing amount of holdings.
Over 100,000 BTC: ETF custodians and large exchange vaults, with increasing amounts of holdings.
In other words, when small whales offload, they are often picked up by larger whales. Retail investors see the news and panic-buy, but the risk is very high. A correction in a bull market is healthy; the experience from the 2021 bull market showed a correction of up to 25%, which does not mean the market is collapsing.
Retail Investor Mindset and Strategy
Do not trade with emotions, and do not blindly follow the news.
Before taking over, think about your exit strategy and understand the support range.
Most offloading is just a business strategy; the core position remains stable.
Let's take a look at the next digital gold—Ethereum.
Ethereum's situation is slightly different; the inflow of ETF funds is crucial for price support. Un-staking data is a key reference indicator.
The more people stake, the more stable the price; the more people un-stake, the higher the risk of price decline.
Currently, over 920,000 Ether are waiting to exit, and the number of active validators is increasing, but at a slow pace.
In the short term, as long as Ether does not break the support range, there is still a possibility of rising. If the ETF can continue to support the market, breaking previous highs is not impossible, but it relies more on traditional financial funds to drive it.
In general, corrections in a bull market are normal; whale offloading does not mean retail investors need to panic. The key is to look at the overall chip distribution and market structure.
Understanding market logic allows you to remain calm amidst fluctuations, not be led by the news, and seize real opportunities.
Let's stop the discussion on the article here! If you're still unclear about the direction in the crypto space, why not layout your strategy with me? I'm waiting for you; otherwise, in the next wave of the market, you might be the one standing on the opposite shore.
