Pay more attention to the external macro environment in the upcoming market
Powell is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Thursday. The market originally hoped for a rate cut in September, but the reality is that inflation pressures remain, and rate cut expectations have been suppressed, leading to a pullback in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market. Gold has been relatively stable, while oil prices have slightly declined due to news regarding US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations. If the talks make real progress, the risk premium would decrease, which theoretically is a positive sign; however, if the negotiations fall apart, market sentiment could take a sharp downturn.
ETH almost reached a new high recently but has been pushed back below 4200. Additionally, with many tokens unlocking this week, the short-term funding situation is relatively tight. However, institutional attitudes remain unchanged; BMNR is still aggressively increasing its holdings in ETH, indicating that the main funds are still optimistic.
My understanding is: this week's key will still depend on Powell's tone. If he leans dovish, BTC could return to 120,000, and ETH could rise above 4500; if he continues to emphasize fighting inflation, the market will likely remain volatile. In terms of altcoins, it's best to choose projects with real logic and real positive factors, rather than chasing randomly. Overall, short-term fluctuations will be relatively large, but the long-term trend remains unchanged, so looking for low-point opportunities during the adjustment is more appropriate. $BTC