Yesterday, BTC and ETH confirmed the bottom range after probing, with around 111.9k being the first bottom, ending the probing market. Next, we will welcome a rebound and a second probe, completing the construction of the bottom range. The second probe is the best time to bottom-fish, patience is needed. At 10 PM tonight, pay attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, I will help everyone seize the opportunity to bottom-fish for wealth!
BTC
After Bitcoin broke 112000, it stopped falling during the second test in the 112000 range. Technically, the weekly MACD is about to form a death cross, and the daily line has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating a need for further adjustment in the future market, but it may not necessarily continue to decline. The current position is at a key support level, which may still trigger a rebound, having reached a critical turning point.
Currently, the upper downward trend line is gradually approaching, and the lower side is not far from the previous low of 111.9k, today we need to clarify the direction:
1. If there is a strong breakout with volume, follow up with a long after confirming the pullback;
2. If there is a false breakout or it falls back directly, it is likely to continue weakening.
I personally tend to expect a 'dead cat bounce' market (short-term rebound), targeting approximately a recovery after breaking 111.9k, rebounding to 120k; if it doesn't rebound and directly breaks down, then decisively short.
Short-term support levels: EMA30 (111400), 2-day EMA52 (110295, close to the 110k level), after these two positions are breached, support looks towards around 107450. Support levels can be limit orders for low absorption; the closer to the 110k level, the less advisable it is to short.
ETH
Ethereum's trend is stronger than Bitcoin, but it is currently unable to act independently due to Bitcoin's influence, oscillating in the range of 4100-4350. The K-line is about to stand above the 7-day line (position 4350), and after last standing above the 7-day line, it had a large increase. It is expected that if Powell's speech meets expectations, there might be a significant rise, still insisting on being bullish.
Future trend judgment:
1. If it breaks 4350, it may continue to surge above 4550;
Around 2.4600 is an important resistance level, shorting can be considered;
3. The daily support below is in the range of 3890-4100, and buying on dips in this range has a high cost-performance ratio.
In addition, Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 288 million dollars yesterday, ending four consecutive days of net outflow, with buying returning, making a short-term upward breakout more likely. Strategically, one can buy on dips around 4200, 4100, 4060.
Shanzhai
FISH
Currently, both FISH and DOGSHIT are dividend coins. DOGSHIT has a market value of five million, while FISH is just one million, so it can be played with a small position.
EIGEN
Currently at 1.34, planning to buy more if it drops, holding period will be a little longer, optimistic about Ethereum reaching new highs sooner or later, so if staking becomes viable, I will buy this, which is similar to the previously recommended $ENA, closely related to ETH, and the bottom doesn’t rise much.
Tonight's turning point
At 10 PM Beijing time tonight, Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, where we can observe the recent interest rate trends of the Federal Reserve. This is his last time attending this meeting as Fed Chairman (his term ends next year).
This is another key node of 'one sentence determines the market'! I believe there will definitely be interest rate cuts in September. Now various parties are voicing, which is actually to stir the waters, still the old routine of expectation management. Just like before last year's rate cuts, it was also about repeatedly manipulating expectations and throwing smoke bombs, with the aim of exhausting market sentiment before the real rate cuts.
But this also has benefits, creating fluctuations and leaving opportunities for those who truly understand.
