August 22 Afternoon Market Viewpoint
1. Bitcoin, expected range 111000-115000, expected to decline and then reverse;
2. Ethereum, expected range 4150-4450, expected to decline and then reverse;
3. Friday at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
1. Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed a downward trend, with Bitcoin hitting a weekly low while Ethereum resisted the decline.
Throughout the day, Ethereum independently rose, indicating strong internal bullish sentiment.
The slowing decline and rebound over the past two days suggest that bottom-fishing funds have started to enter the market.
The entry of bottom-fishing funds will also reverse the recent bearish atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin and Ethereum, making it likely for both to stop falling and build a bottom in the next few days.
2. Today's market focus is on Powell's speech at 22:00.
It is expected that Powell will still lean towards hawkish remarks (bearish), so the market is wary of this. During the day, the upside is expected to be limited, and after rising, there might be risk-off selling leading to a pullback.
3. However, the market still expects an 80% probability of a rate cut in September, which does not change the bullish trend at the daily level.
If Powell's remarks are hawkish, it is expected to trigger a sell-off, but once the bearish forces and panic emotions are digested, one can consider a bullish trend at the daily level.
4. Today, a decline followed by a V-shaped reversal is expected.
Go long during the day, and short as night approaches,
Short before Powell's speech at 22:00,
After a sharp decline, consider a V-shaped reversal for medium-term long positions;
If the V-shaped reversal does not occur, then go for medium-term long positions over the weekend. (If Powell unexpectedly releases bullish news, chase the rise for medium-term long positions.)
