Goodness! Is the Federal Reserve about to flip the table? Three regional Fed big shots actually lined up yesterday to slap the market in the face, just short of saying, 'Are you people overthinking this?'
That sister Hamak from Cleveland said it best—'Meeting tomorrow? Rate cut? No way!' The tone is so rigid, it's practically welding the door to a rate cut shut.
Schmidt from Kansas City is even harsher, saying 'The policy is really good now, don't mess it up.' Does that sound familiar? Doesn't it remind you of that most stubborn old leader in your company?
Even the usually mild-mannered one from Atlanta has started to play it cool: 'I did say there might be a rate cut this year, but I didn't say it was definite!' Wow, there’s enough hidden meaning in that statement to ponder for half a day.
The market folks are really excited, with interest rate futures showing over a 70% probability of a rate cut. I wonder if these traders had too much whiskey last night?
The worst part is that the old monster of inflation is causing trouble again! Trump is swinging his tariff stick, and companies are currently holding on without raising prices—how long can they last? Hamak said it clearly: 'What I fear the most is this!'
Now it’s getting interesting, on one hand, the employment data is indeed a bit disappointing, while on the other hand, inflation seems to be hard to suppress. How smoothly does Powell need to play tonight to keep everyone pacified?
What’s even more terrifying to think about is—why did these three choose this critical moment to speak out collectively? Did they coordinate behind the scenes? Or have they seen some terrifying data?
Tonight's big show at Jackson Hole, I bet fifty cents it's going to be spectacular. Do you think old Powell will back down or stand firm? Will the market be played around again?
Finally, let me ask everyone, if you were Powell, with a starving market on one side and colleagues eyeing you on the other, how would you plan to perform this play?$ETH
