😱😨😱😱😱😢 Filling the balloons not with oxygen, but with shorts, is it time to dive to the bottom?

🎈😭 Jackson Hole and S&P 500 (1982-2023): Over 40 years of symposium, the market shows a bearish bias: 56% of cases ended with a drop two days into the event (Thursday + Friday). Only 22% of years saw growth above 0.5%.

📝 Distribution of results:

- 35% - weak growth (0-0.5%)

- 15% - strong declines (below -1.5%)

- 7.5% - significant growth (above +1.0%)

• Major declines occurred during crisis periods: 2008 (-2.10%), 2022 (-3.44%), 2019 (-1.77%). Strong growth happened rarely.

• The last 5 events at Jackson Hole led to short-term downward trends soon after the event.

😦 🍔💥📰🧑‍⚕️ What happened with BTC? We conducted research for you, and here’s what we found:

• 2024: flat, after the meeting a 17% drop the following week.

• 2023: dropped by 14%. During Jackson Hole it remained flat, after 3 days post-event it rose by 7%, the next day it dropped by the same amount.

• 2022: dropped by 13% before Jackson Hole, then fell another 13% over the week.

• 2021: remained flat, dropped by 20% a week later.

• 2020: dropped by 6%, then recovered and less than a week later dropped by 19%.

• 2019: dropped by 18% before the meeting. During the meeting, typical intraday volatility, a couple of days after the meeting, it crashed by 13%.

• 2018: dropped by 25%, then rose by 16% after the meeting, a week later dropped by 18%.

• 2017: rose by 74%, then dropped by 9%. After the meeting it rose by 20%, a week later dropped by 40%.

🧸 Conclusion:

• Drops after the meeting: 7 out of 8 cases (87.5%).

The exception: only 2018 showed a growth of 16% immediately after the meeting (but still dropped by 18% a week later).

🤧 Characteristic patterns:

• Drops before the meeting: 6 out of 8 cases.

• Average size of drops after the meeting: 15-20%.

• Delayed effect: even if it rose immediately, it dropped a week later.

Are you waiting for a drop after the meeting, even if it will be in a week, like in previous years❓

Yes, the scuba gear is on, harpoon ready to catch the bottom 🐳

No, since many are expecting a drop, we are taking off, donned the space suit, filled the rocket tanks with 100x leverage, waiting for lift-off 😎

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