😱😨😱😱😱😢 Filling the balloons not with oxygen, but with shorts, is it time to dive to the bottom?

🎈😭 Jackson Hole and S&P 500 (1982-2023): Over 40 years of the symposium, the market shows a bearish trend: 56% of the cases ended with a decline two days after the event (Thursday + Friday). Only 22% of the years saw a growth above 0.5%.

📝 Distribution of results:

- 35% - weak growth (0-0.5%)

- 15% - strong declines (below -1.5%)

- 7.5% - significant growth (above +1.0%)

• Major declines occurred during crisis periods: 2008 (-2.10%), 2022 (-3.44%), 2019 (-1.77%). Strong growth was rare.

• The last 5 events in Jackson Hole led to short-term downward trends soon after the event.

😦 🍔💥📰🧑‍⚕️ And what happened with BTC? We conducted research for you, and here's what we found:

• 2024: flat, after the meeting a decline of 17% in the following week.

• 2023: fell by 14%. During Jackson Hole it remained flat, after 3 days post-event it rose by 7%, then fell by the same amount the next day.

• 2022: before Jackson Hole it fell by 13%, and then declined another 13% over the week.

• 2021: remained stable, then fell by 20% a week later.

• 2020: fell by 6%, then recovered and less than a week later fell by 19%.

• 2019: fell by 18% before the meeting. During the meeting, normal intraday volatility, then crashed by 13% a few days after the meeting.

• 2018: fell by 25%, then rose by 16% after the meeting, fell by 18% a week later.

• 2017: rose by 74%, then fell by 9%. After the meeting, it rose by 20%, and fell by 40% a week later.

🧸 Conclusion:

• Declines after the meeting: 7 out of 8 cases (87.5%).

The exception: only 2018 showed a growth of 16% right after the meeting (but still fell by 18% a week later).

🤧 Characteristic patterns:

• Declines before the meeting: 6 out of 8 cases.

• Average size of declines after the meeting: 15-20%.

• Delayed effect: even if it rose immediately, it fell a week later.

Are you waiting for a decline after the meeting, even if it happens a week later, like in previous years❓

Yes, the scuba gear is on, the harpoon is ready to catch the bottom 🐳

No, since many are expecting a decline, we are taking off, donned our spacesuits, filled the rocket tanks with 100x leverage, waiting for a lift-off 😎

🟣 Trading Club 🟣 Support