Will there be a rate cut in September? Can the bull market continue?
Brothers, let me explain the core logic to you:
① Rate cut expectations are still present, but the market is wavering back and forth.
It is highly likely that there will be a rate cut in September, but it is not set in stone yet. A few Federal Reserve officials hinted a few days ago that they are 'not in a hurry to cut,' which is why the market has been fluctuating based on news.
② Tonight's speech by Powell is key.
On the night of the 22nd, Beijing time, he will speak at the central bank's annual meeting, which is very likely to release the latest policy signals. However, the final stance will depend on the economic data at the end of the month and the non-farm payroll data on the first Friday of September. The real interest rate decision will be at 2 AM on September 18th. Before that, the market is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.
③ The relationship between rate cuts and the bull market.
If a rate cut begins in September, it is expected to be a gradual decrease of 25 basis points. The first announcement of a rate cut will have the strongest stimulus, and the bull could reach a peak for that phase.
The second rate cut may also bring a wave, but the impact will not be as strong as the first.
If there is no rate cut in September, it could actually be more favorable for the market—allowing the bull market to continue until the end of the year or even early next year.
In other words, regardless of how September goes, opportunities will continue to arise before the interest rate settles down. If you can seize a wave, it will be enough to reap significant benefits from this bull market.
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