Will there be an interest rate cut in September? What impact will it have on the cryptocurrency market? Let’s clarify it simply.

The interest rate cut is not yet determined, and the market is waiting for signals.

Recently, several Federal Reserve officials said, "We are not in a hurry to cut," which has left the market a bit confused. However, the possibility of an interest rate cut in September still exists, with three key time points to watch:

​​Powell's speech​​ (August 22) — We will see if he hints at anything.

​​Non-farm payroll data for August​​ (September 6) — If the employment data is poor, the probability of a rate cut increases.

​​Federal Reserve's official decision​​ (September 18) — The final answer.

The impact of interest rate cuts on the market is as follows based on historical experience:

​​First interest rate cut​​ (for example, a cut of 25 basis points) — The market is most excited, easily leading to a surge.

​​Second interest rate cut​​ — The effect is not as strong.

If there is no interest rate cut​​ — The bull market may last longer because funds are still waiting for policy changes.

What should we do now?​​

Don’t just guess whether there will be a rate cut; focus on these key matters:

​​U.S. Treasury yields​​ — If they start to fall, it indicates that the market expects a rate cut.

​​Inflation data​​ — If inflation rebounds, the rate cut may be delayed.

​​Policy vacuum period​​ — The market may fluctuate before September, which is suitable for positioning on dips.

​​Don’t be swayed by short-term news​​ — The Federal Reserve often tests the market with hints.

Regardless of whether there is an interest rate cut in September, there are opportunities in the market. The key is not to be scared by short-term fluctuations, make a plan, and wait for the trend to become clear before taking action.

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