The $SOL is currently at a critical juncture where it could go up or down, and we need to patiently wait for the market to signal its direction; we must not trade impulsively.
My analysis is as follows:
1. Observe price momentum:
The daily increase was only 1.4%, which I do not consider a strong signal; it feels more like "going with the flow". A true strong rally should have a price increase of at least 5% and sustained volume. The current sluggish movement indicates that large funds are not exerting force or are quietly offloading during this small rebound. My strategy is to ignore this small fluctuation, neither going long nor short, and continue to observe.
2. Identify support and resistance:
Resistance level: Definitely the previous rebound high, for example, the range of $190-200. As long as the price doesn't break through with volume, I view any rise as "baiting buyers".
Support level: I will look at the starting point of this recent rally, such as the $160-170 range. If the price falls to this level and stabilizes with reduced volume, then it would be the time to consider lightly testing a long position.
3. Consider the background for long-term judgment:
I know the SOL ecosystem is strong and the technology is impressive, but that has nothing to do with my short-term trading! The fundamentals determine whether it "can recover", while the technicals determine "when I should act". Even if I have a long-term positive outlook on SOL, I will only buy in batches when the market panics and the price hits strong support levels.
My specific operational plan is as follows:
If the price retraces to around $165 with reduced volume and stops falling: I will try a small long position.
If the price breaks through $200 with volume and holds: I will wait for a pullback confirmation to enter.
If the price oscillates in the middle range: I will just drink tea and watch the show.
Overall, now is not the time for action. I am a hunter, patiently waiting for the SOL price to enter my trap, while also watching the movements of the US stock market. Opportunities are created by waiting, not by acting.
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