This summer, whether Dogecoin's collapse has ended became a hot topic of discussion in the cryptocurrency space. However, in analyst VisionPulsed’s video analysis on August 20, this view faced reality checks. He explicitly rejected the 'bullish propaganda,' asserting that for Dogecoin to show a meaningful trend, it must rely on the breakout of two key external indicators: Ethereum breaking its all-time high and the Russell 2000 index setting a new high. He stated: 'We are bearish until the Russell 2000 index breaks its high; we are bearish until ETH breaks its high.' He further explained that the failure of these key breakouts is why Dogecoin and altcoins have not been driven by cyclical signals.
Has Dogecoin's collapse ended?
VisionPulsed began with deliberate irony—'A daily dose of bearish medicine, because it’s always bearish'—but quickly turned to data. He pointed out that since October 2023, Dogecoin's lows and highs have been climbing, but the stock price has been in a state of fluctuation for months: 'Dogecoin's price hasn’t moved for nearly 7 months... We have been consolidating for 175 days.'
He defines this range as a potential accumulation phase, analogous to the previous long-term compression, and observed that the stagnation over the past few months preceded a sharp expansion: 'Overall, people would think this is bullish... This time the volatility is significant, like a 400-day consolidation... If you are willing, we might even be in an accumulation phase.'
The analyst's core point is that the historical triggers that once synchronized with the seasonal rise of altcoins have failed in the current cycle. He revisited two previously effective strategies: the regular rise after halving and the pattern of 'Dogecoin following Bitcoin's all-time high.' He pointed out: 'Historically, Dogecoin usually peaks within 240 to 260 days after halving.'
However, he continued to state, 'Now, nearly 500 days have passed since the halving, but we still see no breakout.' Similarly, despite Bitcoin repeatedly hitting new highs, this has not translated to the Dogecoin market: 'Bitcoin breaks new highs, but Dogecoin shows no reaction. We remain bearish.' He believes that the changing landscape of the altcoin market still awaits two unfulfilled cyclical conditions: Ethereum and the Russell 2000 index breaking their historical highs.
When analyzing the dynamics of market leadership and dominance, he noted that the Russell 2000 index had attempted to break through the top, but its dominance is declining. He believes that if the breakout fails, this trend might reset the timeframe. 'Many people think this is the peak season for altcoins, but if the Russell 2000 index continues to fall, dominance may return.' He also added that he prefers to remain 'optimistic' rather than 'excited' before the small-cap index and Ethereum break through critical resistance levels.
Although he refuted the exaggerated claim of 'the biggest altcoin season ever'—stating 'the data does not support this narrative'—VisionPulsed also outlined the only scenario that gives him a sense of 'hope.' He pointed out that if the Russell 2000 index approaches its historical high and Ethereum also nears its historical high, this trend could signal the end of Dogecoin's decline, similar to the precursors of previous uptrends. He said: 'Once the Russell 2000 index and Ethereum break their historical highs, I will start to feel very excited. But until then, we have not reached that stage.'
This calm is reflected not only in the price movements but also in the decline of market participation. He mentioned: 'The number of views for the video may drop below 2000 at any time, with almost no one watching. Google Trends also reflects this.' In his view, the current situation is truly represented by the lukewarm retail market and the unresolved cyclical changes, rather than being related to the impending surge.
Overall, VisionPulsed's conclusion aligns with the initial viewpoint: the story of Dogecoin's collapse cannot be overturned solely by local signals from cryptocurrencies. He believes that if Ethereum and the Russell 2000 index do not break through simultaneously, Dogecoin will continue to maintain a range-bound oscillation, and the overall momentum of altcoins remains insufficient compared to previous cycles.
As of the time of writing, Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading at $0.21757.
