(1) Altcoins break the 'blood collapse' curse, emerging with independent trends.
Recently, the crypto market has overturned people's inherent perceptions of 'altcoins.' In the past, altcoins often fluctuated significantly with the market, becoming the hardest hit area during market turbulence. However, now, altcoins frequently demonstrate independent trends, no longer blindly following the market trends, bringing new vitality and opportunities to the market.
(2) Capital revolves around 'interest rate cut expectations,' with volatility becoming the norm.
In the first half of 2025, the flow of funds in the crypto market is relatively single, often being siphoned by BTC or dragged down by the overall market. However, currently, the capital structure has adjusted, no longer blindly following the big market. Funds are more centered around the 'interest rate cut expectations,' engaging in battles before the expectations materialize, and waiting for pullback opportunities after realization, which intensifies short-term market volatility.
(3) Pullbacks are not malicious smashing; 'turnover' raises market expectations.
The recent market pullback is not due to malicious selling but mainly from ancient whales concentrated selling over the weekend, while listed companies actively absorbed the selling pressure. This 'turnover' behavior raises the average cost in the market, thereby increasing the expectations of whales and listed companies for subsequent trends, laying the groundwork for the continuation of market trends.
II. Analysis of Mainstream Coin Trends: Pullbacks breed opportunities, and support levels hide secrets.
(1) BTC: The barometer guides, and a pullback may be a layout window.
BTC, as the barometer of the crypto market, significantly influences overall market sentiment. The current market trend has not ended; if BTC can retrace adequately, it will provide investors with a rare opportunity to position themselves.
(2) ETH: The impact of the pullback is differentiated, with key support levels attracting attention.
ETH has fallen from its peak, dropping over 10%. The trend has continuously declined, which is related to the previous excessive gains and increased profit-taking pressure. However, the chain reaction caused by profit realization is difficult to sustain, and a repair trend is likely to occur midway. On the technical side, $4300 is a key support level; after losing it yesterday, the support strength around $4050 has become the focus. For spot investors, the impact of the pullback is limited; however, contract investors need to be wary of short-term pressure. Looking back at the pullback after ETH hit the $4000 mark at the end of July 2024 and the trend approaching a historical high in mid-August suggests that pullbacks often present opportunities to enter strong altcoins and mainstream coins.
III. Layout Strategy: Select 'offensive and defensive' targets.
(1) Swing trading to reduce costs; the core logic is to select targets.
In the current market environment, adopting swing trading and cost suppression is a relatively prudent strategy. Target selection should follow the principle of 'offensive and defensive,' focusing on coins that occupy core positions in mainstream tracks or have unique application scenarios; these coins possess both downside protection and explosive potential.
(2) Key currency analysis.
SOL: As a mainstream coin that has recently rebounded, its long-term value is being validated. Community members positioned around the $110 - $120 bottom, most have realized 'principal withdrawal and zero-cost holding.' From a reasonable valuation perspective, the short-term target is $210, with long-term potential reaching $300.
LTC: After organizing, the pump has been completed, currently pulling back to the $115 position. The rhythm of sector rotation is clear, and the subsequent target looks towards $200.
LINK: Adding the oracle track and RWA concept, with solid fundamentals. $50 is not the end; after short-term consolidation, there is still upward space, and investors should not exit easily.
SUI: Although it is in a sideways consolidation period, long-term potential is worth looking forward to. If this bull market can enter the top ten by market capitalization, it must have the ability to attract large funds, and its public chain track meets this characteristic, likely becoming a dark horse.
IV. Insights on Sector Rotation: Capture the next windfall.
(1) Sector rotation is rapid; avoid 'taking turns to hold the bag.'
The rotation in the crypto market is usually rapid; investors need to grasp the rhythm precisely to avoid becoming 'the bag holder.' Previously, Ethereum-based altcoins performed strongly, and those chasing highs may face short-term consolidation pressure.
(2) The rules of capital rotation guide the layout in the mainstream coin rotation phase.
Capital rotation usually follows certain rules, first led by BTC, then ETH takes over, followed by mainstream coins like SOL and BNB, and finally a full explosion of altcoins. The current market is in the mainstream coin rotation phase, positioning along the capital flow is more prudent than rushing into small coins. The next opportunities are likely to appear in the SOL series, MEME sector, and BNB series.
V. Summary and Outlook: The trend remains unchanged; pullbacks are signals to enter.
Overall, the trend of the crypto market has not been disrupted; the current adjustment is a normal phenomenon and also an opportunity to enter before interest rate cuts. Investors need not waver in confidence due to short-term price fluctuations but should seize the pullback window to position themselves in targets with both fundamental strength and capital attention. In the crypto market, all altcoins have the potential to become dark horses; their emergence is not coincidental, either breaking through in the MEME sector due to popularity, standing firm in the DeFi field through ecological advantages, or winning in the public chain track through technology. Investors must understand these logics to take the initiative in the following market trends and achieve investment goals.
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