Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has arrived in Wyoming and will make his final appearance as Chairman at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Symposium. He will once again walk through the lobby of the Jackson Lake Lodge, passing by the bear statue and the moose antler chandelier, entering the ballroom where he has spoken for seven consecutive years, taking the stage at 10 AM Eastern Time on Friday — a time that has not changed since 2018. His remarks will continue to provide key signals for the Federal Reserve's next policy direction.
As the Federal Reserve Chairman nominated by Trump at the end of 2017, Powell's past speeches at Jackson Hole have always been deeply tied to policy adjustments: from interest rate hike decisions to shifts towards rate cuts, from slowing policy pace to crisis responses, involving both economic theoretical explanations and real-time crisis reactions, with every statement concealing clues for subsequent actions.
Historical policy trajectory: key nodes from interest rate hikes to shifts.
In 2018, Powell's inaugural speech metaphorically referred to the policy framework as 'navigating the stars', supporting the interest rate hike cycle, emphasizing that 'gradual rate hikes are the path to balance the risks of over-tightening and insufficient tightening'. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve raised rates two more times that year, continuing the pace of four rate hikes for the year.
In 2019, influenced by Trump's trade war and global economic slowdown, Powell's statements showed a clear shift, explicitly stating that he was 'closely monitoring the three major risks of weak global growth, trade uncertainty, and moderate inflation.' Following these remarks, the Federal Reserve added two more rate hikes on top of the July hike that year, before the onset of the pandemic completely changed the policy logic.
During the pandemic in 2020, Powell introduced a new policy framework while attending remotely, shifting focus to employment, stating that 'maximum employment is a broadly inclusive goal', and suggesting 'inflation slightly above 2% can be maintained temporarily after being below 2%', in September the Federal Reserve further established a new threshold for interest rate hikes: achieving full employment and 2% inflation while confirming that inflation can sustainably exceed the target.
In 2021, he misjudged the inflation situation, stating virtually while attending that 'current high inflation may be a temporary phenomenon.' Although the Federal Reserve slowed asset purchases in November, the interest rates remained near zero until March 2022, and this delay was later criticized for exacerbating inflationary pressures.
In 2022, Powell returned to the scene, releasing tightening signals with a brief statement: 'Restoring price stability may require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for an extended period.' Following this, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points twice after the speech, until pushing rates to the 5.25%-5.50% range in July 2023.
In 2023, his tone softened but remained cautious: 'Decisions will carefully weigh further tightening or maintaining rates unchanged', with no rate hikes for the entire year, preserving policy flexibility.
In 2024, with cooling inflation and weak employment, Powell stated that 'confidence in a sustainable path of inflation returning to 2% has increased', proposing that 'the time for policy adjustments has come', cutting rates by 50 basis points in September to end a year-long pause, and adding two more 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year, completing the policy shift.
This farewell speech may mark a policy note for Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman, and the market is holding its breath for the final wave of policy signals he will release.
