Ualifi Araújo
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Bullish
Some questions about today's Economic data, so let's go...
1. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
Current: -0.3
Projection: 6.8
Previous: 15.9
Here it was perfect, came in much worse than expected. Showing weakening of industrial activity, which makes things easier for an interest rate cut.
2. Initial Jobless Claims
Current: 235K
Projection: 226K
Previous: 224K
Another data point that favors the interest rate cut, came in above expectations, this is also positive for rate cuts, especially since Powell said he would monitor this closely.
3. Manufacturing PMI (Aug - preliminary)
Current: 53.3
Projection: 49.7
Previous: 49.8
This is the data that caused discomfort, came in well above the projection, showing strength in the industry, and indicating that the economy is still hot. Which Powell can clearly use to avoid cutting.
4. Services PMI (Aug - preliminary)
Current: 55.4
Projection: 54.2
Previous: 55.7
Also strong, above the projection. This reinforces solid activity, which is yet another excuse for Powell 🤦🏼♂️
5. Existing Home Sales (Jul)
Current: 4.01M
Projection: 3.92M
Previous: 3.93M
Above expectations, showing a resilient real estate market...which also complicates our outlook for Interest Rate Cuts.
Final Thought...
Overall, the whole thing was quite mixed, with data both for and against the cut. Of course, some of the broader analyses brought a more alarming bias, emphasizing the fact that the FED gives a lot of weight to the services sector and real estate market, which remain strong.
However, it has become evident that these data or any other are not what Powell wants; he is indeed playing politics, and as long as Trump has nothing against him to use or he doesn't see the Circus on fire, he will maintain this stance.
The #BTC retreated and Altcoins did too, but it is clear that they remain strong, so...we just need the useless Powell to speak, and we will rise again. No one expects anything good from him anyway. 😅
Ignore the noise!
1. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
Current: -0.3
Projection: 6.8
Previous: 15.9
Here it was perfect, came in much worse than expected. Showing weakening of industrial activity, which makes things easier for an interest rate cut.
2. Initial Jobless Claims
Current: 235K
Projection: 226K
Previous: 224K
Another data point that favors the interest rate cut, came in above expectations, this is also positive for rate cuts, especially since Powell said he would monitor this closely.
3. Manufacturing PMI (Aug - preliminary)
Current: 53.3
Projection: 49.7
Previous: 49.8
This is the data that caused discomfort, came in well above the projection, showing strength in the industry, and indicating that the economy is still hot. Which Powell can clearly use to avoid cutting.
4. Services PMI (Aug - preliminary)
Current: 55.4
Projection: 54.2
Previous: 55.7
Also strong, above the projection. This reinforces solid activity, which is yet another excuse for Powell 🤦🏼♂️
5. Existing Home Sales (Jul)
Current: 4.01M
Projection: 3.92M
Previous: 3.93M
Above expectations, showing a resilient real estate market...which also complicates our outlook for Interest Rate Cuts.
Final Thought...
Overall, the whole thing was quite mixed, with data both for and against the cut. Of course, some of the broader analyses brought a more alarming bias, emphasizing the fact that the FED gives a lot of weight to the services sector and real estate market, which remain strong.
However, it has become evident that these data or any other are not what Powell wants; he is indeed playing politics, and as long as Trump has nothing against him to use or he doesn't see the Circus on fire, he will maintain this stance.
The #BTC retreated and Altcoins did too, but it is clear that they remain strong, so...we just need the useless Powell to speak, and we will rise again. No one expects anything good from him anyway. 😅
Ignore the noise!
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