$BTC silently broke below $112,000, and no one is shouting about altcoin season anymore. The reason for the drop is still due to the speculation around the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. After Harker expressed unwillingness to support an interest rate cut for September, the expectation for a rate cut in September has been declining steadily. CME has dropped to 73.5%, while Kalshi has fallen to 60%. Investor sentiment is gradually turning pessimistic, even Trump's actions to set an example have not had an effect.

Friday night is the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and Powell's speech is receiving the highest attention. My personal view is that Powell may not reveal a clear stance on September's monetary policy, but will insist on focusing on data. However, he is likely to show no opposition to a rate cut in September, which should also be a positive for the market.