Market Outlook

New lows or no new lows are both reasonable

I believe the bottom for Ethereum is already in at 4060. Bitcoin currently has some uncertainty.

Pay attention to tonight's price action.

BTC - Potential new low (40% probability), triple bottom divergence

ETH - Potential inverse head and shoulders

That is to say, there's a 40% chance I think BTC will make a new low tonight, with Ethereum simultaneously retesting the 4240-4100 range without breaking down. This would again form a divergence between the two currencies (MMD, or IMD, whatever you call it), which would create a "very bullish" structure for Ethereum. The market could then truly rebound. If this structure forms, my expectation for the upside space will be relatively high, and I think it is very likely that this rebound will go to 120,000 for Bitcoin and a new high for Ethereum.

Alternatively, under a 60% probability, Bitcoin does not hit a new low, Ethereum retraces normally, then look forward to the 4240-4226 range providing the final chance to get on board, and then continue to rebound upwards. The target price above is tentatively seen at 116,000 for Bitcoin and 4500 for Ethereum, because not sweeping away the low of 111,800 makes me somewhat doubtful about the space for the rebound. I would suspect that in this case, it may go up to 116,000 and 4500 first, and then come down to clear 111,800 (although not clearing it is also OK).

The above two scenarios already encompass most of tonight's situation. Next, let's see how the US market moves.