Powell's "graduation address" is coming! Is the cryptocurrency world ready for the "big test"?
This week, there's nothing else major happening in the financial world. Everyone is eagerly awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium—his last address at this venue during his tenure, practically the financial world's "finale of the year"!
Don't think this is just some high-ranking chatter; every time he opens his mouth, the market trembles. For the cryptocurrency world, it's a matter of life and death: if he softens his tone and hints at a rate cut (a "dovish" tone), Bitcoin might surge upwards. But if he suddenly takes a hard line and declares "no rate cuts" (a "hawkish" tone), the cryptocurrency world will likely experience another bloodbath.
A look at the historical record is even more heartbreaking: after his past seven speeches, a decline in US stocks, a rise in the US dollar, and a sharp rise in Treasury yields have become almost standard practice. The worst was in 2022, when he said, "Fighting inflation will hurt," sending the S&P 500 plummeting 12%, and the cryptocurrency world plummeting in half. While inflation has dipped slightly this year, it's still far from the Fed's target. Every word in this speech at this critical juncture is like a bombshell.
The market is already betting on an 85% probability of a rate cut, practically like opening a blind box and betting on the odds. Even more exciting, this is his last Jackson Hole speech. Will he try to make a splash, create a memorable spectacle? Or perhaps even go against the grain and catch everyone off guard?
Don't forget, Trump is still constantly urging him to cut rates, putting pressure on him. Will there be a rate cut in September? Will Powell relent? In short: buckle up, hold on to your spot positions, and don't trade rashly. Tonight and tomorrow, the cryptocurrency market may be about to witness the most exciting volatility of the year!
