🔔Friday 22:00｜Jackson Hole - Powell's Speech Preview【Broadcast Announcement!】
@TradeyAI Full Broadcast + Second-Level Interpretation + Three Scenario Trading Cards
Time
Beijing/Singapore Time August 22 (Friday) 22:00 Start
Latest Market Context
Inflation: July CPI YoY 2.7%, Core CPI 3.1%; Core MoM +0.3%.
Employment: July Non-Farm +73,000, Unemployment Rate 4.2%; Labor force marginally weakening.
PCE: June Core PCE YoY 2.8%; Next release August 29.
Market Pricing: Futures imply ~85% chance of a 25bp rate cut in September; major media tracking consistent reports from Reuters.
Highlights Upgrade
Multiple media outlets claim this is Powell's last JH speech during his tenure, focusing on his framework review/policy communication tone-setting power.
Reuters' preview mentions that the strategic framework may be “calibrated/reiterated”, emphasizing the foundational role of price stability before achieving employment goals.
TradeyAI's baseline judgment (about 60%)
Is to leave the door open for a modest rate cut in September, but not to lock in the pace: continuing “cautious progression/data dependence/risk management”, emphasizing risk balance between “cooling employment vs price stickiness.” Corresponding path: U.S. 2Y↓, DXY↓, U.S. stocks and crypto initially rise then stabilize.
Two Alternative Scenarios
Dovish: Highlighting core inflation stickiness and tariff transmission → 2Y↑, DXY↑, risk assets under pressure, meme β retraces deeper.
Super Dovish: More straightforwardly paving the way for September → 2Y quickly declines, DXY retreats, high β chains and themes show stronger elasticity.
(Market's current rate cut expectations are highly volatile, with range reports pointing towards ~80–90%.)
