Ethereum is going through a critical point in its market structure. After an attempt to recover from $4,050, the price managed to climb to $4,220, but the strong resistance between $4,350 and $4,380 remains a tough barrier to break.
The drop below the 100-hour SMA and the negative trend line at $4,355 reflects that the bears still maintain partial control.
Key Technical Analysis
Immediate resistance: $4,350 – $4,380
Key supports: $4,220 and $4,050
Bearish scenario: If ETH fails to surpass $4,380, the price could pull back to $4,200 and even $4,050.
Bullish scenario: A clear breakout above $4,460 would open the door to $4,500 – $4,565.
Mixed indicators: The MACD remains negative, but the RSI above 50 shows that there is still no overselling.
Bounce or corrective phase?
The rejection in the $4,350 zone coincides with relevant Fibonacci levels, reinforcing the idea that the market could be entering a phase of consolidation or correction after the previous rally.
The correlation with Bitcoin, which also faces significant technical resistances, suggests that the overall sentiment in the crypto market is still uncertain.
External Factors to Watch
Beyond technical analysis, external variables such as:
Institutional adoption.
The behavior of capital flows around Ethereum ETFs.
The overall state of the global macroeconomy.
Could tilt the balance towards a new bullish impulse or towards a deeper correction.
Conclusion
Ethereum (ETH) is at a turning point. If the bulls manage to defend the support at $4,220, the long-term bullish scenario will remain intact. However, a loss of that level would open the door to a correction towards $4,050, marking a breather within the overall bullish narrative.
The next move will depend on who takes control in the critical zone of $4,350 – $4,380.
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