Remember when I said Buy $ETH , Sell $BTC on June 3?
Or while I'm writing this?
Now, this time we will dissect a bit why I said that. From stablecoin regulation to technical upgrades, market psychology, all point to one big question: "Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin and lead the next bull cycle?"
Let's break down the main factors one by one!
1. GENIUS Act Regulation: Green Light for Stablecoins on Ethereum
With the enactment of the Genius Act, stablecoin regulation in the US has become more organized: stablecoins must be fully backed, undergo regular audits, and have legal protection if the issuer goes bankrupt.
Why is this important? Because most stablecoins like USDC or USDT run on Ethereum. Regulators are now giving the "green light" for them to operate on this platform. Grayscale and Ether Machine express optimism that Ethereum stands to gain the most from this policy.
2. Stablecoin Dominance & On-chain Activity Surge
About 50% of stablecoin volume passes through the #Ethereum blockchain, making it the heart of transactions. With the GENIUS Act, institutional use can also increase.
From the image, we can see that 50%+ of stablecoins are in the ETH ecosystem, with the second place being $TRX , followed by other networks.
3. Technical Upgrades: Dencun & Pectra Strengthening Layer-2
Ethereum continues to improve. The Dencun upgrade enhances Layer 2 transaction efficiency, making costs cheaper and the network more scalable. Yesterday, Ethereum also had the Pectra Upgrade, which can enhance the flexibility of staking and smart contracts of ETH itself.
The more efficient, cheaper, and wider Ethereum becomes, the more attractive it is for Devs, Users, Institutions, and others.
4. Institutional Inflows and Infrastructure Dominance
Spot Ethereum ETFs are also starting to gain significant volume, like Bitcoin. Additionally, BitMine Immersion is changing its strategy by placing ETH as a $250 million treasury reserve, showing institutional confidence in Ethereum Business.
Or Bit Digital, which sold all #bitcoin and bought ETH on July 8. Additionally, there are still many large institutions starting to enter ETH, and with high demand, there will be potential for price increases.
5. Price Momentum: Catch-Up Trade & ATH Records Approaching
Ethereum recorded a 29% rally in five days, approaching an all-time high of $4,865. Analysts call this a "catch-up trade", driven by positive regulations and technical upgrades. The relative position against Bitcoin is getting stronger, indicating ETH can outperform in the short term.
6. My Personal Analysis?
SS May 31, I still believe there will be an altseason even though many "big people" say there won't be an altseason in this cycle, etc.
Since May 17.. and just a few months ago, people have been buzzing about #altsesaon .
Now, let's analyze.. is there an altseason? Is there a connection to ETH?
1. ETH/BTC Factor
We see that ETH/BTC has experienced CHoCH, where the ETH pair with BTC is already in a bullish phase (SINCE MAY 13, that's why I said "soon.. altseason")
A bullish ETH/BTC pair is often seen as one of the early signals of altseason, which is the period when altcoins (including Ethereum) outperform Bitcoin in price performance.
📈 ETH/BTC Bullish = Potential Altseason Signal?
Yes, but not always. This usually serves as an early signal or confirmation that the market is beginning to shift from Bitcoin dominance to altcoins. Why?
During the early phase of a bull run, liquidity focuses on Bitcoin.
After BTC rises significantly and starts to go sideways or stagnate, investors begin to seek higher returns in altcoins.
Ethereum (as the largest altcoin) usually leads the way. If ETH outperforms BTC, then investors feel more confident moving to other altcoins → this is what's called altseason.
Please pay attention to the Cycle below...
2. BTC Dominance
This is in line with discussion number 1, where if BTC dominance decreases, then the money flow will shift to altcoins.
BTC Dominance Formula
And... there is still much more
