Bitcoin is starting to look toppy on the larger timeframes — but does that mean the bull run is over? Let’s break it down step by step using Elliott Wave structure, key support levels, and what signals we need to watch next.
🔎 Bigger Picture: Still Holding Support
On the daily chart, Bitcoin hasn’t broken below any significant swing lows yet — not even the August low. This means the correction is not confirmed as complete, and the larger structure still allows for more upside.
📍 Key Support Zone:
Between $111,569 – $112,954.
As long as this area holds, the pullback could still be a wave 4 correction within the broader bullish structure.
⚠️ First Bear Market Confirmation
While nothing is guaranteed, the first real confirmation of a bear market would come if:
1. We see a 5-wave move down and
2. Bitcoin breaks below $101,569.
That combination would strongly suggest a major top has already formed. Until then, pullbacks remain corrective in nature.
📈 Short-Term Structure: Still Corrective
On the smaller timeframes, the pullback looks like a WXY corrective structure. At the moment:
The move down is only three waves, not five.
That means there’s no clear sign of a major top yet.
But pressure remains to the downside until we see stronger buying momentum.
📍 Resistance to Watch (Wave B Bounce):
$116,937 – $121,657
🧐 What’s Next?
If Bitcoin bounces from $112K–$113K, this could be a local low and start of wave B.
If volume remains weak, another C-wave down is likely.
Upside invalidation: A convincing break above $115,950 would be the first signal of recovery.
✅ Bottom Line
Bigger picture: Still technically bullish, as long as $111,569 – $112,954 holds.
First bear market confirmation: Break below $101,569 with a 5-wave decline.
Short term: Expect corrective chop, with upside potential only if bulls reclaim $115,950 with strong volume.
Structure always tells the truth — and right now, the market is signaling caution.