Is the four-year cycle theory of the market nonsense?

1. Nature of Market Cycles: Cycles are like maps, providing only a rough framework; the underlying conditions of the market determine its specific performance, and the current cycle has essential differences from the past.

2. Price Structure and Behavior: Comparing Amazon to Bitcoin and Ethereum, new assets undergo different growth stages; the current cryptocurrency landscape is in a large-scale adoption phase, which contradicts the four-year cycle theory.

3. Analysis of the Dow Jones Index: Historical data of the Dow Jones Index shows that its consolidation and expansion cycles vary in length; the current bull market has only lasted 5 months since the April low, based on the shortest 22-month upward cycle, a peak may not be seen until early 2027, indicating that the market still has upward potential.

4. Basis for Bull and Bear Transitions: The April crash has brought market sentiment, time, and prices to bear market levels, similar to 2020, 2008, and 2000, providing momentum for a new bull market. Ethereum has completed a cycle of both bull and bear markets; the April low is the bear market bottom, allowing for upward potential.

5. Copper/Gold Ratio Correlation: The copper/gold ratio chart has been able to predict Bitcoin's trends since 2013 and is currently at a low point. Based on a 17-month bull market cycle, it is expected to end by early 2027, aligning with the Dow Jones Index situation, and current Bitcoin short positions have reached their highest level since 2021, indicating a potential significant price increase.

6. Prospects for Altcoins: The altcoin market has a bright outlook; breaking through old highs takes time and involves significant volatility. An upward trend is expected to last for 12-18 months, and the four-year cycle theory does not apply to altcoins.

7. Doubts about Halving Theory: Bitcoin has already reached new highs before the 2024 halving, and the first quarter of the fourth year in the four-year cycle has seen crashes, which contradicts the halving theory. Some opinions suggest that halving has no impact on Bitcoin's price.