1. Current price resilience
In the past 48 hours, DOGE has continued to oscillate in the range of $0.21-$0.23. Although the 7-day decline reached 12.8%, the support level at $0.21 has shown strong performance, with the 5-day K-line low gradually rising, forming a 'higher low' trend since 2024, reflecting that buying power still dominates in a weak market, accumulating momentum for subsequent breakthroughs.
2. Technical structure: Primary breakthrough target $0.6533 (+170%)
1. Symmetrical triangle breakout signal
The Binance 4-hour chart shows that DOGE has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the peak expected around August 22.
If the volume breaks through the resistance of $0.243 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level), it may trigger a 30% short-term rebound; if it loses the support of $0.190, it faces the risk of a deep drop. Key levels: $0.190 (bull-bear boundary), $0.243 (breakthrough catalyst). 2. Long-term bullish structure: The 5-day K-line has continuously created higher lows (e.g., breaking $0.27 in July, reaching $0.25 in August), confirming a long-term holding breakthrough pattern. Analyst Javon Marks points out that this structure targets $0.6533 (a 170% increase from the current level), and if achieved, it will create the strongest rebound since 2021. 3. Feasibility path to the $1.25 target (+490%): If it successfully breaks through $0.6533, DOGE may open a historic upward trend, with specific supporting factors as follows:
Technical momentum: After breaking the long-term downtrend line and the previous high of $0.48, it may trigger a parabolic trend, targeting $1.25 (a 490% increase) and challenging the historical peak of $0.7316. On-chain support: Recent new address growth of 102.4%, active addresses increased by 111.3%, and zero-balance addresses jumped by 155.4%, reflecting accelerated capital inflow. Derivatives assistance: Open interest has reached $3.73 billion, with an additional $272 million in 24 hours, and a short liquidation pressure ($2.8 million) boosting a short squeeze. 4. Core breakthrough catalysts: 1. ETF approval progress: Institutions like Grayscale and 21Shares have submitted DOGE spot ETF applications to the SEC, and if approved, it will attract billions of dollars in institutional funds. The current market estimates the approval probability has risen to 75%, becoming a key variable for price explosion. 2. Bitcoin correlation effect: DOGE has a 60-day correlation of 0.78 with Bitcoin. If BTC stabilizes above $58,000 and challenges $60,000, DOGE may see a 20%-30% spillover increase; if BTC turns bearish, it will be under pressure. 3. Actions of whales and institutions: Whales have accumulated 2 billion DOGE (about $400 million) in the $0.18-$0.23 range, and institutions like Bit Origin have made multi-million dollar bets on small payment scenarios, enhancing fundamental expectations. 5. Risk warnings and key validation signals: Short-term resistance: $0.24-$0.26 is a strong resistance zone, which has suppressed the upward trend several times since 2024. It is necessary to close above $0.2455 on the daily chart with increased volume to confirm the validity of the breakout. Downside risk: If it loses the support of $0.215 (the intersection of EMA50 and Fibonacci 0.236), it may fall back to the $0.17-$0.20 range. Regulatory variables: If the SEC classifies DOGE as a security, it may trigger the risk of delisting by exchanges; tightening anti-money laundering policies in Europe and the U.S. may also trigger selling pressure. 6. Conclusion: Breakout verification period layout strategy: Short-term trading: Take $0.24 as a watershed, after breaking through, chase long positions with a target of $0.266 (13% upside), with a stop-loss set at $0.215. Long-term layout: If it stabilizes above $0.25 and ETF favorable news is released, gradually build positions to speculate on a target of $0.65-$1.25, keeping the position within 3% of total assets.$DOGE
