No one can sell at the peak; the peak only flashes by. Day traders might catch it, but most people are just noise.

The four-year cycle seems very stable: 2013, 2017, and 2021 were almost all years when peaks appeared. Everyone is watching this pattern, which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But this time is different—institutions have arrived. ETFs, pensions, DATs have turned the market into a new chessboard, with profit-taking being more stable, unlike retail investors who might panic sell. The regulatory environment has also changed; the transition of the Federal Reserve chair (June 2026) could extend the bull market.

Another key indicator is the market cap of stablecoins, which is like gasoline in a tank; as long as the fuel is topped off, the car can keep running. As long as it continues to grow, the market still has fuel.

My judgment is: the peak is most likely in 2026, not 2025. But no matter how you predict, the key point is to have an exit strategy. The end of a bull market is not the peak, but how many chips you can take away.