19th: ETH is consolidating around 3000, a typical accumulation pattern, with funds oscillating and exchanging hands at the bottom.
20th: It briefly dipped 240 points (around the 4060 range), quickly rebounding, indicating that buying pressure below is not weak.
21st: It surged to 4376 with increased volume, but after reaching a high, it retreated back to the consolidation zone (≈ around 4300), indicating that selling pressure above still exists.
Support range: 4250–4300, short-term defensive level; breaking this may accelerate the pullback.
Resistance range: 4450–4500, this is a key battleground for bulls and bears in this phase.
Volume observation: Yesterday's surge followed by a pullback indicates that short-term funds are locking in profits or are taking profits; if it is to challenge 4500 today, a volume breakout is necessary.
Bullish logic
If ETH can stabilize above 4300 and break through 4450 with increased volume, the probability of challenging 4500–4550 is significant.
Conditions: Needs the market (BTC) to cooperate, at least maintaining strength.
Bearish logic
If ETH fails to hold above 4300, or if it reaches the 4450–4480 range and retreats again with decreased volume, there is a high probability it will retest 4200 or even 4000.
Conditions: Weak volume, lack of bullish momentum.
Bull-Bear Probability Assessment
Bullish Probability: 55%
After continuous consolidation and oscillation, ETH has the momentum to challenge the upper resistance levels, and short-term funds remain active.
Bearish Probability: 45%
4500 above is a strong resistance level, and a further surge followed by a retreat is not ruled out, potentially leading to a second washout.
