When the US economy coughs, the crypto market has to take cold medicine! The latest unemployment and manufacturing data has just been released, and the market is already in turmoil!
The 'bomb' behind the data
Initial jobless claims: 224,000
Expected: 230,000: The job market is stronger than expected, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to maintain high interest rates—bad news for the crypto market!
Philadelphia Manufacturing Index: 7
Previous value: -15.9: Factory orders suddenly warmed up, increasing the attractiveness of traditional assets, and funds may withdraw from BTC—history repeats itself: In March 2023, when manufacturing rebounded, Bitcoin plummeted 11% in a week.
The Federal Reserve's 'death stare'
After the data was released, CME interest rate futures showed the probability of a rate hike in September skyrocketing from 12% to 18%—direct evidence: Each time rate hike expectations rise, the average crypto market value shrinks by 8-15%.
Case impact: On the day of a 75 basis point rate hike in June 2022, BTC instantly crashed below $20,000, with liquidation volumes hitting a yearly high.
The 'dark script' of institutional funds
On-chain data shows: Within one hour after the data was released, the inflow of BTC to exchanges surged by 3,000 coins—naked truth: Institutions are positioning themselves in advance for hedging.
Contrary to common sense: The better the economic data, the more dangerous it is for the crypto market, as the Federal Reserve will be more hawkish. After the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations in May 2024, BTC fell for 7 consecutive days.
Retail investors' 'escape route'
Keep a close eye on tonight's 22:00 US existing home sales data—key indicator: If it exceeds expectations, it may trigger a second wave of selling.
Survival strategy: Refer to the CPI data release on August 14, when BTC first plummeted 5% and then rebounded 8% in a 'V-shaped scenario'; don’t act on the data impulsively.
Now the soul-searching question: When economic data and the Federal Reserve team up to drain liquidity, do you choose to flee with the big funds in advance, or gamble on a violent rebound of 'bad news fully priced in'?
After tonight's existing home sales data, pay attention to the Block Key; I will analyze and break down the movements of institutional funds. #美联储7月会议纪要
