🔹 U.S. Stocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics
U.S. Stocks: Nasdaq dropped 0.83% during trading, S&P 500 fell 0.36%.
Commodities: Gold increased by 0.85%, with safe-haven demand rising.
Federal Reserve:
Chairman Powell is set to deliver a policy framework speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, with the market watching for signals regarding a rate cut in September.
Market expectations: A high probability of a 25bp rate cut; Goldman Sachs predicts rates will eventually drop to 3% to 3.25%.
Political pressure: Both Trump and Treasury Secretary Basent have publicly pressured Powell to accelerate rate cuts.
🔹 Policies and Regulations
Stablecoin Bill GENIUS: The U.S. Treasury has initiated a public comment period aimed at clarifying how financial institutions should prevent crypto-related illegal activities.
SEC: Chairman Paul Atkins stated that only a very small number of tokens qualify as securities, and institutions will support innovation while building a market framework to prevent regulatory arbitrage.
ETF Approval: The SEC has postponed the approval of Trump Media BTC/ETH ETF, CoinShares LTC/XRP ETF, and 21Shares XRP ETF until late October.
🔹 Institutions and Capital Flow
Listed companies increased holdings:
SharpLink increased its holdings by 143,593 ETH, with a total holding of 740,760 BTC.
KindlyMD invested $679 million, increasing their holdings by 5,743.91 BTC.
BitMine Immersion increased its holdings by 373,000 ETH last week, raising its total holdings to 1.52 million ETH.
Capital flow:
August 18: BTC spot ETF outflow of $121.7 million; ETH spot ETF outflow of $196.6 million.
ETH spot ETF currently holds 6.3 million coins, accounting for 5.1% of the total supply.
🔹 Market Data and On-chain Indicators
BTC:
Key demand zones: $109,600 & $106,800.
The pullback has only been 8%, relatively mild.
Addresses holding 10,000 to 1 million BTC increased their holdings by 20,061 BTC during the pullback, accumulating a total increase of 225,320 BTC since March.
ETH:
PoS exit queue has approximately 910,000 ETH, about $3.91 billion; about 268,000 ETH are queued to enter.
Sentiment indicator: Only 3 out of the top 20 Hyperliquid addresses are in profit, with 85% in a loss.
🔹 Outlook
Institution expectations:
Bernstein: The crypto bull market is expected to continue until 2027, with BTC projected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in the next year.
SkyBridge Capital CEO predicts BTC will reach $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year.
Macroeconomic projection: If a rate cut occurs in September, the market may enter a new bull market cycle. Current expectations suggest rate cuts will continue until mid-2026, until a neutral rate of 3%.
Conclusion:
The Federal Reserve's policies and expectations for a rate cut in September have become the market focus. Institutions continue to increase their holdings of BTC and ETH, and with policies becoming clearer, the long-term logic remains positive. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the larger bull market cycle is still on track.