According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's recent price movements may still be following its historical four-year halving cycle, although some market predictions suggest that gradually warming institutional interest could break this pattern.
"From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's price action also echoes previous patterns," Glassnode stated in its market report released on Wednesday.
Bitcoin is showing signs of cooling.
Glassnode noted that some factors indicate that the Bitcoin cycle may be progressing more than the market expects.
Long-term holders’ profit-taking—those holding Bitcoin for over 155 days—has now matched the previous frenzy phase, reinforcing the impression of a late-cycle market.
The company also pointed to weak demand, with the inflows into Bitcoin 'showing signs of fatigue.' Approximately $975 million has flowed out of the spot Bitcoin ETF over the past four trading days.
Since Bitcoin reached a new high of $124,128 on August 14, the asset has fallen 8.3% to $113,940.
The decline in demand is pushing traders towards higher-risk volatility bets.
"This slowdown in demand coincides with a surge in speculative positions, as open contracts for major altcoins once reached a record $60 billion, then fell by $2.5 billion."
If Bitcoin continues to follow its typical cycle, its peak could occur as early as October.
Some executives claim that the four-year cycle has ended.
Not everyone believes Bitcoin is still following the four-year cycle; some crypto executives argue that the increasing amount of Bitcoin purchased by public finances, along with rising demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, could make this cycle different from previous ones.
In late July, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the Bitcoin cycle is 'dead,' and Bitcoin may have an 'up year' in 2026.
