The 'old coins' indicator for holdings over a year saw a slight inflow last week, making it difficult to determine whether long-term holders were resuming accumulation or temporarily pausing before distributing again; however, the latest data shows that this segment of chips has shifted back to outflow, and long-term investors have once again entered a reduction phase;

Meanwhile, the price of BTC itself has not experienced significant fluctuations, indirectly indicating that the market has not yet reached a critical point for a trend reversal;

Therefore, as long as this on-chain indicator does not deviate anew, the probability of a significant reversal in the short term remains low. However, given the increasingly close correlation between BTC and macro policies, with heightened sensitivity to Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and regulatory trends, the explanatory power of on-chain data for price fluctuations is being diluted by external variables, requiring traders to pay more attention to marginal changes at the macro level!