ETH Plummeting Doubts: The Night Before Powell's Policy, Institutions' 510,000 Pieces Bottom Fishing Dark Battle
Only 1 day left until Fed Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting at 22:00 on August 22, the crypto market is playing out a game of 'panic and layout': on-chain sudden '910,000 pieces ETH unpledged' triggered a selling spree, yet institutions are wildly buying 510,000 pieces of ETH against the trend. What truth is hidden in this chip competition on the eve of the policy?
I. '910,000 pieces unpledged' panic: The 'selling pressure illusion' created by traders
On-chain '910,000 pieces ETH unpledged' data triggered market panic, but the core truth is deliberately covered up:
- Unpledging ≠ Selling: The current on-chain lending rate has soared to 18% (the year's peak), holders unpledging to reduce the risk of leveraged liquidation (passively reducing leverage), not actively dumping. The actual selling pressure is only below 30% of the surface figures.
- The trader's intention to amplify panic is clear: using retail investors' concerns over policy uncertainty, they created a selling spree 36 hours before Powell's speech to collect chips at a low price.
II. Institutions bought 510,000 pieces against the market: betting on 'Powell's dovish trump card'
When retail investors are swept up in panic, institutions have already launched the 'policy pre-bottom fishing' mode:
- BMNR bought 370,000 pieces in a week (average 53,000 pieces per day), setting a historical record for accumulation before the Jackson Hole meeting;
- SBET synchronously bought 140,000 pieces, two institutions bought a total of 510,000 pieces within 7 days (average 73,000 pieces per day).
Institutions' real money actions target the core logic: betting on Powell releasing dovish signals. Once the Federal Reserve hints at 'rate cut expectations', dollar liquidity will flood the market, and ETH, as the 'liquidity magnet' of the crypto market, breaking through $4400 may only be the starting point.
III. Jackson Hole Annual Meeting: The life-and-death battle for ETH's liquidity
As the Federal Reserve's annual core policy briefing, Powell's statements will determine ETH's short-term direction:
① Hawkish Continuation: Negative news fully out or welcome rebound
If it emphasizes 'persistent inflation requires continued rate hikes', the market may panic briefly, but ETH has already digested rate hike expectations in advance (previous decline over 80%), leaving limited downside space, which may instead trigger a rebound after 'negative news is fully out'.
② Dovish Shift: Recreating Historical Surge Market
If it hints at 'slowing interest rate hikes/discussing rate cuts', the dollar liquidity floodgate will open. Referencing Powell's dovish statements in 2023, ETH surged 42% in 72 hours. This time, institutions are positioning themselves 3 days in advance, replicating historical logic.
IV. Current Stage Warning: Exiting means giving up 'policy dividends'
In the three major stages of a bull market, ETH is currently in the **'growing amidst doubts' second stage**: traders washing out by 'unpledging', institutions bottom-fishing based on policy expectations, while the 'policy bombshell' on August 22 will become a key turning point.
Exiting at this time is equivalent to handing over chips to institutions before the release of policy dividends. Historical experience shows that when central bank policy benefits are realized, funds that have been positioned in advance often capture the largest gains.
Final reminder: Unpledging data is a panic smoke bomb, institutions buying 510,000 pieces is a clear signal, and Powell's statements will determine the liquidity direction. Only 2 days left until the policy window, hold onto your chips and wait for the market to provide answers.
(August 22, 22:00, ETH's policy counterattack battle is about to begin.)
