Yesterday, both the big cake and the alternate market showed a trend of first declining and then rising. The big cake first dipped to a low of 112301 before stopping the decline and rebounding, reaching a high of 114285 by midnight; the alternate market exhibited a similar trend, with the price falling to a low of 4106 before starting to rebound, reaching a daily high of 4329. Today's bearish outlook has been fully realized, as the bearish position was established during the live session early in the morning and has been consistently executed until the evening, with all four short positions ending in a winning streak. Although there was a rebound in the evening, it had no impact on us, highlighting the importance of timing and exiting the market.

From the current market structure, the four-hour cycle is still oscillating in the middle-lower band of the Bollinger Bands. After the appearance of a doji candlestick pattern, although there was an upward move with a bullish bar, there is a significant upper shadow left above the bullish bar, indicating that selling pressure above has not eased. Coupled with the fact that bulls have repeatedly encountered resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the overall downward trend structure has not changed until the bulls can effectively reclaim the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. This round of rebound can be viewed as a regular corrective movement in the market. Looking at the one-hour cycle, the market shows a gradual approach to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, but the upper shadows of the candlestick bodies are relatively long, indicating that the bulls have repeatedly tested the upper band of the Bollinger Bands without achieving effective breakthroughs, suggesting that the current bullish momentum is insufficient to support a price breakout. Based on this, the operational strategy during the midnight session can adopt the idea of laying short positions after a rebound.

Thursday morning outlook: Big cake 114500-115000 range, target around 113000.

Thursday Ling #杰克逊霍尔会议