Experts suggest that ETH could soon surpass a new ATH above $5,000, although investment demand from the U.S. is significantly declining.
Analysis shows that the correction around $4,000 is 'healthy' and could serve as a springboard for ETH to break out to the $5,100 region, driven by institutional investor momentum as well as optimism in the derivatives market.
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Experts and analysts predict that ETH could reach a new peak above $5,000 after a short-term correction.
The inventory of ETH on exchanges has hit a new low for the year, reducing sell pressure on the market.
Despite the strong growth in derivatives and long-term positions, U.S. investor demand remains a factor that must be monitored carefully.
Could Ethereum (ETH) reach a new ATH above $5,000 in the near future?
Many Wall Street experts believe that ETH has the potential to surpass its ATH, even reaching $5,100 soon due to technical factors and positive market sentiment.
Ethereum is undergoing a minor correction. The price adjustment to $4,075-$4,150 midweek is healthy.
Mark Newton, FundStrat, quoted by Tom Lee (X, 2025)
According to Tom Lee, founder of FundStrat, the drop to $4,000 on August 19, 2025, was merely a technical correction for ETH - contributing to strengthening the foundation for a new growth phase up to $5,100. He emphasized that this price range ($4,000-$4,150) could serve as a springboard for a strong rally in the short term based on Elliot wave analysis.
In fact, ETH has seen a bounce when hitting the $4,000 mark - which was a significant resistance area in 2024, and if it maintains this area as support, buyers will be more confident in pushing prices higher. The ability to regain an upward trend still largely depends on the momentum of capital flows and investor sentiment in the market.
Market data indicates that ETH is preparing for a new growth phase after a strong accumulation period.
Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy, FundStrat (according to 2025 forecasts)
What indicates that sell pressure on ETH on exchanges has decreased?
The amount of ETH stored on exchanges has dropped to a record low for the year, reflecting the accumulation trend and price increase expectations from both retail and institutional investors.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that many investors are moving ETH off exchanges for safe storage in wallets or staking, a typical signal indicating that direct sell pressure is significantly decreasing. The contraction of ETH supply on exchanges makes the market more susceptible to strong impacts from large buy orders and pushes prices higher.
This move further reinforces the view that the market is entering an optimistic cycle, especially after short corrective phases. The low inventory index on exchanges combined with increased institutional capital flow data provides a foundation for sustainable price growth.
As interest rates on derivatives contracts rise and ETH supply on exchanges declines, the likelihood of a parabolic price surge becomes clearer than ever.
Market report, CryptoQuant, August 2025
How does the move in the derivatives market affect ETH's outlook?
Statistics show that Open Interest (OI) on ETH futures contracts at CME has hit a new peak, creating strong price momentum thanks to attractive profit spread trading strategies.
According to data from Velo, the OI of ETH futures contracts at CME for August 2025 has surpassed $8 billion, thanks to an attractive profit spread (basis trade) of up to 10%. This spread is significantly higher than the 7-9% range for Bitcoin, attracting considerable capital from international hedge funds using a delta-neutral strategy (buying Spot ETFs and shorting Futures).
The significant increase in Open Interest (OI) reflects the optimistic sentiment of large institutional funds, while competing for yields compared to other cryptocurrency assets. However, the strong short-term rebound of ETH still depends on new capital flows from the U.S. market, which has been declining after recent profit-taking weeks.
How does investment capital from the U.S. affect the price increase of ETH?
Despite the overall optimistic market, demand from U.S. investors has noticeably decreased, limiting the current potential for ETH price breakout.
The Coinbase Premium Index data shows a significant difference between ETH prices on Coinbase (serving mainly U.S. investors) compared to other exchanges. In recent days, this index has sharply declined, reflecting cautious sentiment or stagnant capital flows from the U.S. market - a factor that has historically been a crucial catalyst for previous ETH bull runs.
Many experts believe that if this index recovers along with increased investment demand, the likelihood of ETH reaching the $5,000 mark will become clearer. In fact, previous strong rallies of ETH were accompanied by large capital inflows from U.S. investors through major ETFs and large CEXs.
A new wave of investment from the U.S. will confirm the upward price trend to $5,000 for ETH, thus investors need to pay attention to capital flow fluctuations on Coinbase.
Summary of analysis by FundStrat, August 2025
How has the long/short market position for ETH changed?
The latest data shows that top traders at Binance have significantly increased their Long positions in ETH to nearly 80%, reflecting confidence in the short-term price uptrend.
Statistics from CoinGlass show that Long ETH positions in the portfolios of top Binance traders have risen from 75% to nearly 80% in just three days. This means that professional investors are betting heavily on the scenario of ETH reclaiming the $4,000 mark and continuing towards higher targets. With Long positions dominating, ETH prices could rise quickly due to widespread FOMO effects and Short squeeze pressure.
However, sentiment indicators often come with short-term correction risks if the market turns unexpectedly, especially in the context of speculative positions with high leverage dominating.
Comparing the price momentum of ETH against Bitcoin (BTC) during the same period
While ETH shows stronger appeal due to high derivatives profit spreads and a shrinking supply on exchanges, BTC has a stable foundation but offers lower short-term yields.
Criteria ETH BTC OI (Futures/CME - August 2025) Over $8 billion Stable at $7-8 billion Basis trade (profit spread) 10% 7-9% Supply on exchanges New low for the year Stable, with no major changes Long position increase from funds +5% in 3 days Stable Demand from the U.S. Clearly decreased, needs monitoring Stable or slightly increasing
Frequently asked questions
Is there a possibility for ETH to reach above $5,000 in the near future?
Technical analysts and the latest market data indicate that ETH could absolutely reach a new peak above $5,000 if investment capital recovers strongly, especially from the U.S.
What is causing the sharp decrease in ETH on exchanges?
The decrease in ETH on exchanges is mainly due to investors switching to self-custody or long-term staking, helping to reduce sell pressure on the market and support price increases.
What is the main growth driver for ETH at this time?
Attractive yields on derivatives, large institutional capital flows, and the positive sentiment of top trading groups create the main momentum driving recent ETH price increases.
How do we know if capital inflow into ETH in the U.S. has recovered?
The Coinbase Premium Index is a useful indicator; if it rebounds, it means U.S. capital is returning to the ETH market.
What do Long positions in the market indicate?
As Long positions increase sharply, investors predict that ETH prices will continue to rise, but caution is needed regarding short-term fluctuations.
What is the profit spread between ETH and BTC on CME derivatives?
ETH offers a basis trade of about 10%, higher than the 7-9% for Bitcoin as of August 2025.
What is the biggest risk to the current upward trend of ETH?
Weak investment demand from the U.S. poses a short-term risk; if it does not recover, it may hinder ETH's price growth even as the overall market remains optimistic.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/ethereum-co-the-giam-ve-4-150-usd/
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