🔹 Current Market (1H & 4H)

On the 1H timeframe, $ETH is holding within the $4,230–4,260 zone, which acts as a short-term balance area between buyers and sellers. Recent candles show small bodies with extended wicks, signaling indecision and a market that reacts to each larger order without establishing a clear intraday trend. RSI fluctuates around the neutral 50 level, showing no dominance of either side, while MACD remains flat, close to a potential signal line crossover, reflecting the lack of momentum.

On the 4H timeframe, $ETH is testing the crucial $4,200–4,250 support area, which has repeatedly prevented deeper declines in recent sessions. This is the zone where both short-term traders and institutional players tend to increase their activity. Holding this level could allow $ETH to enter another accumulation phase, potentially preparing for a breakout. The critical resistance zone remains $4,350–4,400, and only a clean breakout above it would unlock the path to higher levels.

Fibonacci retracement (swing $3,800 → $4,400):

  • 38.2%: $4,260 – current equilibrium point of the market,

  • 50%: $4,100 – medium-term support, important if tested,

  • 61.8%: $3,950 – the golden pocket and strategic defense zone for buyers,

  • 1.618 extension: $5,200 – potential breakout target if bullish momentum accelerates.

Volume: The structure indicates accumulation. Downside moves have been supported by relatively higher volume, suggesting buyers are stepping in during corrections. However, upside pushes remain weaker in terms of participation, meaning the market is waiting for a catalyst — possibly a macro event or a decisive technical breakout.

🔹 Yesterday’s Recap (August 19)

Yesterday ETH attempted to reclaim $4,300, but sellers defended this zone aggressively. The rejection triggered a quick pullback toward $4,200–4,220, but importantly, no panic selling occurred. Buyers held the line and kept higher lows intact. This confirms that bulls still maintain structural control, even if momentum is not yet strong enough to drive a breakout.

🔹 Forecast – Possible Scenarios

Bullish case:

If ETH holds $4,200–4,250 with increased buying activity, the first upside target is $4,300–4,350. A breakout above this zone, supported by strong volume, could trigger stop-loss hunting on shorts and fuel a rally toward $4,500, with the ultimate target at $5,000–5,200 (1.618 Fibo extension). The key requirement is a clear surge in volume, as without it, breakouts risk turning into false moves.

Bearish case:

If ETH breaks $4,200 with confirmed selling volume, the next target becomes $4,100 (50% Fibo). Losing this support would put pressure on the market, likely leading to a deeper correction into the $3,950 golden pocket. A decisive failure here could even push ETH back toward $3,800, undoing much of the recent rally.

🔹 Long Scenario (bullish trade setup)

  • Entry: $4,230–4,250 (support defense zone),

  • Stop Loss: $4,200,

  • Take Profit 1: $4,300,

  • Take Profit 2: $4,350–4,400,

  • Take Profit 3: $5,000–5,200.

Strategy: Longs are valid if ETH bounces from support with increasing volume. Otherwise, the risk of a fake rebound remains high.

🔹 Short Scenario (bearish trade setup)

  • Entry: triggered after a confirmed 1H close below $4,200,

  • Stop Loss: $4,250,

  • Take Profit 1: $4,100,

  • Take Profit 2: $3,950,

  • Take Profit 3: $3,800.

Strategy: Shorts should only be considered if selling volume accelerates, as weak participation could quickly reverse the move and squeeze shorts.

🔹 Summary

Ethereum is sitting at a critical equilibrium zone ($4,200–4,250). Whether the market breaks upward toward $5,200 or slips down to $4,100–3,950 will depend on volume confirmation and trader conviction. In the short term, patience is essential — impulsive entries carry high risk of false signals, while disciplined positioning around key levels offers the best opportunities.
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