$BTC Let's analyze the FOMC together.

Highlights from the July FOMC minutes

a. Division within the Fed

• Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller supported an immediate 0.25% cut instead of keeping it unchanged.

→ This is a strong signal as Waller usually has a hawkish view.

• The majority chose to keep it unchanged, but agreed that if data continues to worsen, a rate cut is necessary.

b. Main concerns

• Labor market: The Fed noted a slowdown in job growth, with July figures being sharply revised down for previous months.

• Inflation: Still not at the 2% target, but the trend has cooled.

• Dual risk: If rates are kept high for too long → economic recession; if cut too early → inflation returns.

c. Policy direction

• Some members want to wait for more CPI, PCE, and August employment data before deciding in September.

• The minutes show a greater level of division than before → the market interprets this as an increased likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in September.

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3. Market reaction after the minutes

• Stock market: Received positively, due to expectations of lower interest rates approaching.

• Bonds: Long-term bond yields slightly decreased (cash flow is moving to bonds due to expectations of easing).

• USD Index: Faces downward pressure as interest rate differentials with other regions may narrow.

• Crypto: Received positive signals as cheap money may return to risk assets.

Keep it up!