At midnight on August 21, Beijing time, the global financial market will face a triple blow: the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, crude oil futures month-end operations, and multiple officials speaking collectively.
1. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Set the Stage
Although crypto assets have formed an independent market, global liquidity conditions will still transmit through channels such as the dollar index and risk appetite. The core conflict of this meeting's minutes lies in the officials' differences regarding interest rate cuts within the year.
Dovish Signal: If the majority of officials support interest rate cuts, it may indicate an improvement in the funding environment of traditional financial markets, indirectly benefiting crypto assets. For example, after the Federal Reserve slowed its tapering pace in March 2025, Bitcoin jumped over 5% to break through $85,000.
Hawkish Risk: If concerns about an inflation rebound are indicated (such as a core PCE expectation adjustment to 2.4%), it may trigger a rise in risk-averse sentiment, leading funds to flow back from the crypto market to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone subtle changes recently. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, responsible for regulation, publicly stated that regulators should allow new technologies to be applied widely 'in a way that benefits the banking system' and supports employees holding small amounts of cryptocurrencies to enhance regulatory capability. If this statement is mentioned in the meeting minutes, it may strengthen market expectations for 'regulatory easing.'
2. Crude Oil Month-End Operations: The 'Black Swan' of Inflation Expectations
As a global commodity barometer, crude oil's price fluctuations directly impact inflation judgments, thereby altering the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policies. This month-end operation requires a focus on two major risk points:
Abnormal price fluctuations: If oil prices suddenly rise after the month-end operations, it may reinforce the 'inflation stubbornness theory,' forcing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts; conversely, if oil prices fall below $75, it creates room for rate cuts.
Inventory Data Game: If EIA crude oil inventory changes diverge from the month-end price, it may trigger a repricing of the market's 'geopolitical risk premium,' which could then transmit to the crypto market through inflation expectations.
Historical experience shows that the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices often create a 'teeter-totter effect' with the crypto market. For instance, after the release of the December 2023 Federal Reserve meeting minutes, crude oil prices rebounded by 3%, while Bitcoin simultaneously plummeted by 8% to below $41,000. If this month-end operation triggers a similar chain reaction, we need to be wary of liquidity crises in altcoins.
3. Officials' Speeches: 25 basis points or 50 basis points?
At 3 AM, Federal Reserve officials will collectively speak, becoming the 'calibrator' for the market's expectation of the September interest rate cut magnitude. The current market divide focuses on: a moderate 25 basis point cut or an aggressive 50 basis point easing?
Dovish Signal: If officials mention terms like 'data dependence' and 'gradualism,' it may be interpreted as support for a modest interest rate cut, favoring risk assets.
Hawkish Risk: If they emphasize that 'inflation risks have not dissipated' and 'policy needs to remain restrictive,' it may trigger concerns about tightening liquidity, leading to a synchronized pullback in U.S. stocks and crypto assets.
It is particularly important to note that if keywords related to 'digital asset regulation' (such as 'stablecoin compliance' and 'DeFi risks') appear in officials' speeches, they may directly affect market sentiment. For example, the SEC's recent launch of the 'Project Crypto' plan to rewrite compliance norms could push DeFi leader tokens like Uniswap and Aave up if officials express support.
4. Retail Survival Guide: Three Tips to Lock In Key Signals
For ordinary investors, the following dimensions should be closely monitored at 3 AM:
The 'Inflation Code' of the Meeting Minutes:
Pay attention to whether the mention of 'controllability of inflation' weakens, such as whether phrases like 'significant progress towards the 2% inflation target' are removed.
Whether the pace of tapering further slows down (e.g., from $50 billion per month to $45 billion), which could signal liquidity easing.
The 'Price Anchor' of Crude Oil Month-End Operations:
If Brent crude oil remains above $80/barrel after month-end, we need to be wary of rising inflation expectations suppressing the crypto market; if it falls below $75, it could open up space for interest rate cut expectations.
The 'Crypto Easter Egg' of Officials' Speeches:
If terms like 'digital dollar pilot' or 'DeFi innovation' are mentioned, it may boost related assets like ETH and UNI; if they emphasize 'crackdown on money laundering' or 'prevent speculation,' we should avoid high-leverage altcoins.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve's consecutive announcements at dawn essentially represent the ultimate game between 'liquidity expectations' and 'inflation realities.' For crypto investors, this is both a risk and an opportunity: if interest rate cut expectations materialize, BTC is expected to break through $140,000; if inflation rebounds beyond expectations, the market may repeat the 'flash crash' of December 2023. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on three major signals and prepare strategies that allow for both offensive and defensive maneuvers to strike a balance between survival and profit during this financial storm.
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