As Powell approaches the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on August 22 at 22:00, the price of ETH has pulled back from its July high of $4900 to around $4400, providing an opportunity for institutional funds to position themselves.
The panic caused by the on-chain unlocking of 520,000 ETH is a misinterpretation: unlocking is not selling, but rather a passive adjustment by stakers due to congestion in the validator exit queue (waiting for 15 days). The daily new staking of 450,000 ETH exceeds the unlocking volume, with a staking rate of 29.5%. The actual sell pressure in circulation is less than 100,000 ETH, and institutions have seen a net inflow of $160 million through spot ETFs in a single day, which has covered the selling pressure.
Institutions are accelerating their accumulation: BMNR holds 1.297 million ETH ($5.77 billion), and SBET holds 532,000 ETH ($2.34 billion), accounting for a total of 1.5% of the circulating supply. BMNR has initiated a $20 billion accumulation plan, aiming to concentrate chips to gain pricing power and bet on interest rate cuts.
Powell's speech may present three scenarios: hawkish strengthening (support at $3800, range of $4100-$4400); neutral observation (oscillation between $4400-$4700); dovish probing (breaking through $4800, range of $4700-$5200). After dovish signals in 2023, ETH rose 42% in 72 hours.
Retail strategy: For the long term, use $3800 as a benchmark to increase positions in batches; for short-term trading, build positions in the $4100-$4300 range with a target of $4700; maintain leverage positions within 30%. Be cautious of daily inflows of more than 50,000 ETH into exchanges, funding rates exceeding 0.05%, and the probability of interest rate cuts falling below 70%.
The current pullback is a technical correction in a bull market, and institutional accumulation provides a safety margin. It is recommended to hold 70% in spot and 30% in options arbitrage to avoid panic selling, and to patiently wait for policy-driven value reassessment.
