Behind the abnormal fluctuations in ETH prices: Institutional battles and the reconstruction of market logic on the eve of policy — Countdown to Powell's speech on August 22, don't let emotions dictate at critical junctures
Only 48 hours remain before Fed Chair Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference (August 22 at 22:00), a meeting known as the 'policy barometer' for the global financial market, is pushing the crypto market to a critical point of long and short battles. Currently, ETH prices have pulled back from the July high of $4,900 to around $4,400. The seemingly weak trend actually conceals institutional capital's strategic layout and a profound reconstruction of market perception.
I. On-chain Data Fog: The Truth of the Unlocking Tide and Liquidity Games
The recent market's panic interpretation of '520,000 ETH unlocking' is gradually being falsified by on-chain data:
1. The underlying logic of unlocking ≠ selling
Current on-chain borrowing rates have fallen to a historical low of 1.0%. The core motivation for stakers to unlock is not active selling, but passive adjustments to cope with congestion in the validator queue (exit wait time of 15 days). Data shows that daily new staking volume (450,000 ETH) has exceeded unlocking volume, and the staking rate remains high at 29.5%, indicating a solid foundation of network consensus.
2. Market Misjudgment of Selling Pressure Mismatch
Despite the historical high in the unlocking queue, actual circulating selling pressure is less than 100,000 ETH (19.2% of the total). More critically, institutions have covered potential selling pressure with a net inflow of $160 million from spot ETFs in a single day, forming a closed-loop of 'unlocking-increasing'.
II. Institutional Capital Map: Strategic anchoring of BMNR and SBET
When retail investors are lost in price fluctuations, institutions are strategically positioning with real capital:
1. Disruptive changes in holding patterns
As of mid-August, BMNR holds 1.297 million ETH (valued at $5.77 billion), SBET holds 532,000 ETH (valued at $2.34 billion), together accounting for 1.5% of the total circulating supply. Notably, BMNR recently announced a $20 billion buyback plan, and its holdings are expected to exceed 1 million ETH in the short term.
2. Triple Strategic Intent of Increasing Positions
- Liquidity Siphoning: Control key chips to master pricing power (each 1% increase in circulation can push prices up by approximately 5%)
- Policy Arbitrage: Betting on Powell's speech to release a 'data dependency' signal, laying out expectations for interest rate cuts in advance
- Ecological Positioning: Seizing opportunities for the upcoming Pectra upgrade (Layer 2 cost reduced by 80%)
III. Scenario Simulation of Powell's Speech and Market Mapping
As a key window for the Fed's policy shift, this speech may present three scenarios:
Scenario Classification Core Statement Market Mapping ETH Volatility Range
Hawkish reinforcement emphasizes 'inflation resilience', delays interest rate cut expectations, short-term pressure, but $3,800 constitutes strong support 4,100-4,400 dollars
Neutral observation maintains 'data dependency', retaining policy flexibility, oscillating and accumulating strength, waiting for non-farm data guidance $4,400-$4,700
Dovish probing suggests 'September rate cut possibility', watch for tariff impacts breakthrough of $4,800 historical high, initiating main upward trend $4,700-$5,200
Historical experience shows that after Powell released dovish signals in 2023, ETH soared by 42% within 72 hours. This time, institutions are laying out positions 3 days in advance, precisely replicating this historical pattern.
IV. Retail Survival Guide: Three Major Rules for Navigating Volatility
Amid increasing policy uncertainty, investors need to establish a scientific response framework:
1. Position Management Strategy
- Long-term holders: Set a psychological stop-loss at $3,800, adding positions in batches every 5% decline
- Swing Traders: Establish long positions in the $4,100-$4,300 range, targeting $4,700
- Leverage Investors: Keep total positions not exceeding 30%, set a 1.5x dynamic stop profit
2. Risk warning indicators
- On-chain Indicators: Pay attention to Glassnode's net flow from exchanges (be cautious of over 50,000 ETH inflow)
- Derivative Indicators: Reduce positions when perpetual contract funding rates > 0.05%
- Macroeconomic Indicators: CME FedWatch Tool shows risk aversion when the probability of a rate cut in September falls below 70%
3. Tracking Institutional Trends
- Key monitoring of Grayscale ETH Trust premium rate (currently -12%, narrowing negative value suggests reversal)
- Pay attention to changes in Coinbase holdings (recently increased by 87,000 ETH)
The current market is in a resonance period of 'policy expectation gaps' and 'institutional position reconstruction'. The decline of ETH from $4,900 is essentially a technical correction in the second phase of the bull market, not a trend reversal. Institutions have established a safety margin for market pricing with the addition of 510,000 ETH.
On the eve of Powell's speech, it is recommended that investors adopt a 'core + satellite' strategy: hold 70% in spot positions and participate in options volatility arbitrage with the remaining 30%. Remember, the real risk is not price volatility, but losing chips in panic. On August 22 at 22:00, let us witness the moment of value reassessment driven by policy together.
