The Jackson Hole annual meeting, where global central bank governors gather, hides a big bomb: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's 'possibly last lecture'.
Wall Street has gone wild. Someone bet $10 million on options, wagering on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and if correct, could directly make $100 million! This level of craziness is even more exhilarating than Macau. Despite last week's PPI data soaring to 0.9%, inflation hasn’t completely cooled down, but it can't stop the market's gambling nature: the probability of betting on a 25 basis point rate cut is now as high as 80%.
Powell's speech this time carries different weight — it's highly likely to be his last time speaking at this meeting during his tenure. Everyone is focused on two points: How much will the rate cut be in September? Will it affect the Federal Reserve's policy framework?
If he isn't as 'accommodative' as the market thinks (hawkish), short-term bonds will give you a hard time in no time; but smart money is already pulling out, within JPMorgan's clients, the 'neutral faction' is increasing, all fearing this old man might suddenly change his stance.
For the crypto world, the logic is very simple:
Rate cut and easing → cheap money increases → possibly flowing into high-risk assets → Bitcoin and Ethereum might get a share.
If Powell makes firm remarks emphasizing anti-inflation and isn't in a rush to cut rates → risk assets will collectively shiver, and crypto won’t be spared.
But remember, the crypto market has always been 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'; even if rates are truly cut, one must guard against 'good news turning into bad news'.
Friday is destined to be sleepless. When Powell speaks, global markets will tremble. For us ordinary people, it’s better not to gamble recklessly; playing with spare cash and controlling risk is better than anything else. Buckle up, this volatility may not be small!
Continuously follow: $BTC $ETH $SOL OGN MEME BIO DMC ZEC
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