The crypto market is currently intertwined with bulls and bears. The pullback after Bitcoin's new high has caused divergence; XRP's potential for popularity in the Japanese and Korean markets is receiving much attention, while altcoins are entering a window for increase, requiring investors to closely monitor key signals.
#Bitcoin: Is the pullback a pause in the upward trend or the beginning of a bear market?
After Bitcoin set a historical high of $124,527 last week, its recent pullback to the $112,000 - $113,000 range has left investors feeling conflicted.
Short-term pressures come from multiple sources.
This round of pullback is mainly due to a large number of profit-taking actions after the strong rebound in July, combined with a wave of leveraged liquidations. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, with net outflows even occurring in August after a record in July, leading to a cautious attitude among institutions.
Additionally, the SEC investigation into companies related to the Trump family projects brings legal risks that disturb market sentiment.
Federal Reserve policy is a key variable - investors are waiting for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this weekend. If expectations for a rate cut in September strengthen, Bitcoin may rise in anticipation of 'positive expectations'; if hawkish signals are released, it may trigger greater volatility.
Technical aspect: The long-term trend remains intact, but short-term confirmation is needed.
Support level is clear: Current $112,000 - $113,000 (Fibonacci 23.6%) is key support; a drop below may test $105,000 - $107,000 (Fibonacci 38.2%); resistance is at $117,000 - $119,000, with a breakthrough expected to challenge historical highs.
On the daily chart, the price remains above the 200-day moving average, indicating a long-term upward trend is intact. However, the 4-hour chart shows that the buying strength indicator (cumulative Delta) has not yet turned positive, and the rebound is more of a technical repair with weak momentum.
However, the RSI has entered the oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound. If buying pressure does not keep up, the pullback may extend.
Trader Strategies
Short-term traders: It is recommended to wait for confirmation of buying signals (cumulative Delta turning positive, RSI exiting oversold) before bottom-fishing; long-term investors: as long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average, it can be held, but macro policy risks should be monitored.
#XRP: Can the popularity in Japan and Korea drive the price to $22?
Crypto analyst Diana analyzes that XRP's price may be influenced by the adoption rate in the Asian market (especially Japan and Korea), with significant potential for popularity in Japan.
Strong support has appeared in South Korea, while Japan represents potential incremental growth.
Among South Korea's 53 million population, about 7 million are active XRP users (accounting for 13%), contributing to 20% of global trading volume, with daily inflows of $500 million to $700 million, indicating strong adoption.
If Japan's 125 million population adopts at a similar rate, users could reach 16 million, and daily trading volume may increase to $1.1 billion - $1.4 billion; combined with South Korean liquidity, daily trading volume in Asia is expected to reach $1.6 billion - $2.1 billion.
The September event is a key catalyst.
The 'XRP Seoul 2025 Conference' on September 21 will discuss new payment channels and the expansion of ODL services; the Korea Blockchain Week from September 22 to 28 will further focus on XRP. Furthermore, SBI Holdings, as Ripple's partner in Asia, has established the XRP payment infrastructure in Japan and Korea, paving the way for adoption.
Price forecast: Could it reach $22 by the end of the year?
Diana predicts that XRP may reach $5 before the September event and rise to $8-10 afterward; if ETFs and institutional funds enter the market, it could surge to $12-22 by the end of the year. She believes that the combined liquidity from Japan and Korea may trigger supply tightening, and Western funds entering could exacerbate the upward trend.
Altcoins are entering a window for increase, and these assets are worth monitoring.
Analyst Cryptoinsightuk pointed out that Bitcoin's dominance is weakening, and the conditions for a new round of altcoin rallies are maturing, with current bullish risk-reward being favorable.
Key #Altcoin Highlights
Avalanche (#AVAX): It is recommended to place limit buy orders near $22.75; the upper dense liquidity zone is at $27-30, with breakout momentum possibly accelerating.
Dogecoin (#DOGE): Short-term support is effective, targeting 30 cents, with long-term reference to Fibonacci extension levels, potentially reaching $1.19; consideration for deleveraging should be made near 47 cents.
Flare (#FLR): The adjustment structure may be complete, potentially initiating a strong upward trend, requiring attention to trend confirmation signals.
Ethereum (#ETH): A bullish divergence has appeared on the hourly chart, attempting to repair the short-term downtrend, needing to watch Bitcoin's volatility and macro news impact.
Mantle (#MNT): At the top of the range, a breakout may lead to aggressive increases; consider taking profits near $2.
The current crypto market is at a critical juncture: Bitcoin's pullback is testing support, XRP is betting on the benefits of popularity in Japan and Korea, while altcoins are poised for increases. Investors need to cautiously position themselves, combining technical signals, macro policies, and regional market dynamics.
