The decline in this cycle is still dominated by macro sentiment. In the first half of August, the probability of a rate cut in September was as high as 90%. As of this week, it has started to drop, currently at 86%. Additionally, the ETF data for Bitcoin and Ethereum has been continuously flowing out since Monday, with three consecutive days indicating that institutional sentiment also fluctuates with the probability of a rate cut in September. Plus, with Powell's speech this week, the closer we get to the September rate cut date, the more likely his speech will have an impact.
Although institutional ETFs are flowing out, the purchasing strength from listed companies is still present. BMNR has been net buying at a pace of over 30,000 ETH per week for the past two weeks. Today, the data site discovered three addresses increasing their holdings by over 52,000 ETH, likely still BMNR. Additionally, Sbet's weekly purchases have also exceeded 100,000. These all indicate that listed companies remain the main driving force behind ETH's rise. Currently, ETH resembles Bitcoin a year ago when the ETF was just approved, with institutions buying frantically and retail selling crazily. Now, retail investors hold almost no complete Bitcoin anymore. I believe ETH will eventually become such a scene, and once that happens, it will mean Ethereum's price has gone up.
Currently, the cost for these listed companies holding Ethereum is generally in the range of 3500-3700. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin cost is at 73000. Comparing the growth rates, Bitcoin is at 50%, while for institutions it should be around 5000 for a normal estimate. Ethereum rebounded from a low of 4060 this morning, consistent with the support range shared a couple of days ago at 4050-4150.
Speaking of cost-performance ratio, positions below 4100 are undoubtedly among the better cost-performance positions recently. The probability of a rate cut in September is now around 80%, confirming liquidity easing.
The current thought is to check if the previously selected altcoins have reached the expected support range. For example, observing IP, it has been hovering around the 5.4 bottom without breaking below it. Therefore, choosing to enter around 5.5, with the rest pending based on Ethereum's support reference.
Looking forward to the two major driving points in the second half of the year:
Rate cut: Trump has been urging Powell to lower rates, and the expectation for a rate cut in September is now above 86%. Although it has dropped from over 90%, the expectation for a rate cut still exists. After the rate cut, the influx of money into crypto will again elevate it to a new stage.
Altcoin ETFs
This momentum has been present since the second half of last year. Although it hasn’t passed to date, it is likely to happen in the second half of the year. Once there is momentum, Wall Street will gradually shift its focus to this part. The US real estate and bond markets are worth $290 trillion and $130 trillion, respectively, while Bitcoin's market cap is only $2 trillion, Ethereum even lower, and altcoins are needless to say. After June, there were some consortium reserves, but it will still rely on ETFs to break this ceiling.
Assets like SUI, DOGE, LTC all have ETF expectations, and positions have already been arranged in them. The overall direction for altcoins cannot be forgotten.
Short-term pullbacks are healthy; patiently waiting for the rotation of funds in the market, and hoarding valuable markers will allow for a better grasp of the larger direction ahead.
If you firmly believe that Ethereum can lead altcoins to a high in the second half of the year, execute your strategy strictly. If you don't believe it, you can abandon your position; there’s no need to hold on in confusion. It’s meaningless. We come to the crypto circle to make money, not to argue right or wrong. Just be responsible for your own money.
The last macro event to note is the Federal Reserve's monetary minutes at 2 AM today. The focus is whether the probability of a rate cut in September will change. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, where Powell will speak, are all trigger points that affect the market. The sentiment during the meeting is unpredictable, so try not to use leverage during this period.
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