Current Snapshot
Right now, $ETH is hovering around the $4150-$4160 mark on the 15-minute chart. The moving average is pointing down, and the RSI is at about 57 after bouncing from its recent lows. We just saw a bounce from the $4109-$4125 zone and are now retesting the moving average, which is also acting as a prior resistance level.
The Technicals Explained
1. Trend & MA Control
The 15-minute moving average is a clear indicator of a bearish intraday trend. Until the price reclaims and holds above this MA with multiple 15-minute closes, every rally you see is likely a move into an area of selling pressure.
2. Market Structure
After the recent drop, $ETH stopped making lower lows and began forming a series of higher lows around the $4150 level. This is an early sign of a potential shift from a downtrend to an accumulation phase. However, this shift isn't confirmed until we break and hold above the $4168-$4175 neckline area.
3. Key Levels
* Support/Order Block: $4109-$4125. This is where buyers have stepped in repeatedly.
* Resistance: $4168-$4175 (the neckline and MA zone), followed by $4200-$4215 (a previous breakdown shelf).
* Downside Target: If the $4109 support gives way, the daily order block at $4065 comes back into play.
4. RSI Momentum
The RSI has risen from below 50 to around 57, indicating improving momentum, but it's not a breakout signal. The bounce we're seeing likely stems from a mild bullish divergence at the lows, where the price was flat or moving down while the RSI was ticking up.
5. Candle Behavior
* Long lower wicks near the $4110s show that buyers are defending this level.
* Upper wicks into the MA and $4170s indicate that sellers are active, pushing the price back down.
This "retest the breaker" behavior is normal: price bounces off a support level, tags a supply zone, and traders reassess the situation.
6. Potential Patterns
* Bear Scenario: If the price fails to break above the $4170s, a Bear Flag continuation could send us back toward $4125, $4109, and ultimately $4065.
* Bull Scenario: A clean break and hold above the $4170s and the MA could lead to an Inverse Head & Shoulders or a range breakout, squeezing the price up toward $4200-$4215.
Psychology and Sentiment
After a sharp drop, fear runs high, and late shorts often chase the bottom. A quick bounce to the moving average relieves that fear and tempts buyers to chase the move. This is exactly the kind of emotional swing that algorithms and large players exploit. They push the price to a level everyone is watching and test the market's commitment.
Right now, many retail traders are thinking, "support is reclaimed," but a single green candle is not confirmation. Confirmation is king.
My Playbook
* Bullish Mindset: I'll be looking for multiple 15-minute closes above $4168-$4175 and a solid hold above the MA. From there, I'd look for pullback entries with a target of $4200-$4215. This plan is invalidated if the price falls back below $4150 with strong momentum.
* Bearish Mindset: A clear rejection at the MA or the $4170s and a break below $4125 opens the door to $4109 and then $4065. If $4065 is lost on momentum, the larger slide toward $4000 or even $3800 is back in play.
The Bottom Line
This is a retest zone, not a victory lap. The win is a strong reclaim of the $4170s. The loss is a slip back under $4125, which would likely resume the grind toward $4065.
Stay patient, trade the confirmation, and let the chart guide you, not your emotions.