$ETH Snapshot (right now):
Price ~4150–4160 on M15. A steep downsloping MA is overhead. RSI ~57 after climbing from lows. We just bounced from the 4109–4125 pocket and are testing the MA / prior intraday resistance.
Technicals (explained clean)
1. Trend & MA control
The M15 moving average is pointing down → intraday trend still bearish.
Until price reclaims and holds above the MA (multiple M15 closes), every pop is just a rally into supply.
2. Market structure shift (early signs)
After the dump, price stopped making lower lows and printed a series of higher lows into 4150s.
That’s an attempted shift from distribution to accumulation, not confirmed until we break and hold above 4168–4175 (neckline area).
3. Key levels
Support/Order block: 4109–4125 (where buyers defended repeatedly).
Resistance: 4168–4175 (neckline / MA zone), then 4200–4215 (prior breakdown shelf).
Beneath: if 4109 gives way → 4065 daily OB is back in play.
4. RSI message
RSI rising from sub-50 to ~57 shows momentum improvement but not a breakout.
We likely had a mild bullish divergence on the lows (price flat/down, RSI ticking up) → explains the bounce. Confirmation still needs level breaks, not just RSI.
5. Candle behavior
Long lower wicks near 4110s = buyers defending.
Upper wicks into the MA / 4170s = sellers hitting pops.
That’s typical “retest the breaker” behavior: bounce, tag supply, reassess.
6. Pattern read
Two templates on the table:
Fail below 4170s → Bear Flag continuation back toward 4125 → 4109 → 4065.
Break & hold above 4170s (and the MA) → Inverse H&S / range breakout squeeze into 4200–4215.
Psychology & Sentiment (why this hurts people)
After a vertical dump, fear spikes → late shorts chase bottoms.
A quick bounce to the MA relieves fear and tempts FOMO longs.
Algos, big players, and liquidity models exploit that swing in emotion: push to a line everyone watches, then test commitment.
Retail bias right now: “support reclaimed!” but confirmation is king, not the first green candle.
My Playbook Mindset (no hopium)
Bull scenario: I want M15 closes above 4168–4175 + acceptance above the MA. Then I’ll look for pullback entries targeting 4200–4215. Invalidation = back below 4150 with momentum fading.
Bear scenario: Rejection at the MA/4170s and a clean break below 4125 opens the door to 4109 → 4065. Lose 4065 on momentum and the daily slide toward 4000/3800 stays alive.
Discipline: No chasing candles. Trade the reaction at levels, not the narrative.
Bottom line:
This is a retest zone, not a victory lap. Win = reclaim 4170s with strength. Lose = slip back under 4125 and the grind to 4065 resumes. Stay patient, trade the confirmation, and let the chart pay you, not your emotions.
🔥 Patience makes killers. FOMO makes victims.
