Last week's PPI data and the dual negative impact of the initial sunny outlook cast a shadow over the expectations for an interest rate cut in September. Tariffs continue to rise, and institutional longs are taking profits, leading to aggressive short-selling by hedge funds, which has caused Bitcoin's performance to temporarily peak.

In just a few days, Bitcoin has plunged and is experiencing a second bottom test, having formed a technical peak. The current performance is merely a temporary peak, as it has not yet broken below the 4000 mark.

Currently, there are two major events that the market is focusing on: this Friday, old Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, potentially opening the door for an interest rate cut in September; secondly, there is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September.

Interest rate cut? Will Bitcoin's performance really surge? Not necessarily, unless the cut is by 50 basis points, which would trigger a significant rally; a 25 basis point cut would only lead to a small rebound, as the expectations for a rate cut have already been digested throughout August.

Currently, Bitcoin's performance has basically reached our expected 11.3/4000 level. What should we do next?

In the short term, I do not recommend blindly chasing shorts; the double low has support and will likely lead to a rebound. For today and tomorrow, try to focus on low long positions, even if you need to short, try to set the position higher.

Bitcoin resistance level: 114,500-115,000 area

Performance resistance level: 4,250-4,270 area $BTC