Market Outlook

In the previous analysis, it was believed that there was a 70% probability of a rebound near 114400 and 4250, but the rebound was only weak before continuing to fall during the US trading session. After two consecutive days of decline, the market is showing signs of bottoming out again.

Currently, Bitcoin's low point is at 112500, Ethereum's low point is at 4060, other's low point is at 281b (daily chart) or 282b (4-hour chart), and Sol's low point is at 175.71.

Structurally, Bitcoin should go to 112000 after breaking 1144, or a fake breakdown to 111800 and then recover. Ethereum should go to 4000 after breaking 4250. Currently, these two key areas have not been reached (missing 'the final kick'), which is what I am more concerned about. If both 111800 and 4000 can have fake breakdowns and then recover, forming an SFP, confidence in the bottom will be greatly enhanced.

OTHERS and SOL are performing well and have not broken through the support zone. Compared to August 2nd, altcoins are still 'bullish' in structure. (On August 2nd, Bitcoin was higher than it is now, but altcoins were lower than they are now, indicating that altcoins are relatively resistant to this decline.)

The market has now temporarily stopped falling again and has begun to rebound. Will it be smashed down during the US trading session? This is still unknown. From the premium, it can be seen that cb currently has a negative premium, but bitfinex is buying. Americans have only just started 'hedging the risk of Jackson Hole' since yesterday. So the previous decline seems to be not the fault of the Americans, but possibly the panic caused by Asian institutions dumping Ethereum.

I believe that if the market hedges risk in advance and encounters support, some hedgers will unwind, so the bottom will appear before the risk. This is what we may be witnessing now.

Summarizing my trading strategy, I believe that this is close to a short-term bottom, or has already touched a short-term bottom, and there is a high probability of a short-term bottom appearing within Wednesday and Thursday. If Bitcoin breaks 111800 and recovers tonight or tomorrow during the day, and Ethereum breaks 4000 and recovers (forming an SFP), then the bottom can almost be confirmed. If there is no 'final drop', it is also reasonable to start a major rally here.

In terms of positions, I have already allocated 85% of my position. If there is a final drop, I will fill my position. If it does not occur, I will hold my existing position and wait for a rebound to occur before reducing positions in the 117000-118000 and 4500 areas.