1. Summary

$ENA is retesting the support area around 0.62–0.65; simultaneously, there is buying pressure from the roadmap/surge in TVL and significant supply risk due to unlock.

• Price ~0.64

• Catalyst: USDe TVL surpasses a major milestone and positive roadmap; meanwhile, unlock of ~171.85M ENA creates supply pressure.

• Wait for a 4h bounce confirmation before entering exploration.

2. Market Overview

Memecoin/DeFi flows are currently shifting into projects with 'yield' products — Ethena stands out due to USDe (synthetic dollar) and increasing TVL, but this also makes the token sensitive to funding/unlock changes.

3. Technical Analysis

Short-term bias: neutral→bearish until a 4h bounce is seen; support action at 0.62–0.65, resistance near 0.74–0.85 (previous bounce zone). 4h RSI indicates that the downward force still exists but opens the door for a technical bounce.

4. Fundamental Analysis

Ethena operates a delta-neutral strategy to issue USDe; large TVL and an encouraging roadmap drive demand, but a model based on funding rates and basis-trade risks could cause stress if funding reverses.

5. Sentiment Analysis

Current sentiment is mixed: investors are optimistic due to the product/TVL but cautious ahead of unlock and long-term risk analysis — likely to react strongly to news.

6. Strategy

  • Entry: buy exploratory when the 4h candle clearly bounces above 0.66–0.68; or wait for a breakout closing 4h above 0.75–0.80 to confirm.

  • Stop-loss: exit if 4h closes below 0.60 (breaks support action).

  • TP1: ~0.75–0.85 (take partial profit); TP2: ~1.00–1.18 for the remaining part if momentum continues.

  • Exit triggers: the biggest is a massive unlock or signs of a funding rate reversal pulling sUSDe/USDe model under stress → exit/reduce position.