1. Summary

$ENA is retesting structural support around $0.62–$0.65; positive on-chain developments (USDe TVL, roadmap) compete with a material token unlock risk.

• Price ~$0.64.

• Catalyst: USDe adoption/TVL milestone and roadmap announcements vs. an August unlock of ~171.85M ENA.

• wait for a confirmed 4h bounce before probing.

2. Market Overview

Flows into DeFi primitives that generate yield (USDe’s basis trade) have supported ENA, but that same dependence on funding rates and large on-chain releases makes the token sensitive to liquidity and funding reversals.

3. Technical Analysis

Short-term bias: neutral-to-bearish until a clear 4h recovery; actionable levels — support $0.62–$0.65 (buy-test), resistance $0.74–$0.85; 4h RSI shows room for mean reversion but selling pressure remains.

4. Fundamental Analysis

Ethena issues a delta-neutral synthetic dollar (USDe) and has seen significant TVL/usage gains; however, the model relies on positive funding rates — a persistent reversal could stress stability and token value.

5. Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment is mixed: traders are enthusiastic about adoption and roadmap progress yet cautious about large unlocks and structural risks highlighted by analysts.

6. Strategy

  • Entry: tactical probe buys once a 4h bounce is confirmed above $0.66–$0.68, or consider momentum entry after a 4h close above $0.75–$0.80 with volume.

  • Stop-loss: clear SL — exit if 4h closes below $0.60.

  • TP1: $0.75–$0.85 (take partial profits); TP2: $1.00–$1.18 if the uptrend resumes.

  • Exit triggers: large unlock-driven selling, funding-rate reversal impacting USDe, or any governance/technical red flag → reduce/exit.