In the past few months, BTC treasury companies have been regarded as an important driving force in the crypto market and a strong cornerstone supporting Bitcoin prices. However, the reality may be far less solid than imagined. When price volatility combines with shareholder pressure, even treasury companies may instantly transform from 'guardians' to 'sellers'. This article attempts to simulate the market paths that BTC treasury companies may encounter in the next 6-12 months. Core assumptions:

. Subjects: 10 BTC treasury companies holding varying amounts of Bitcoin, with market value to net asset value multiples (mNAV) ranging from 1.0x to 5.0x.

．Differences: Company quality is determined by treasury size and management beliefs/marketing capabilities.

·Background: The initial price of Bitcoin was $120,000.

·Core logic: Once some companies choose to sell BTC to repurchase stocks, it will trigger a round of reflexive cycles: price drop → mNAV under pressure → more companies forced to sell → intensified selling → further price decline. #杰克逊霍尔会议 $BTC