Interest rate cut remains undecided! ETH at the $4100 threshold hides three key signals, institutions say: September may become a watershed in the year
The global crypto market is holding its breath! On the evening of August 23, Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a key signal at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting—"The time for policy adjustment has come," but the expectation of an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut was shattered on the spot. What hints did this speech, seen as Powell's "final performance", lay for Ethereum (ETH)?
Signal one: Rate cut expectations are cooling, ETH is under short-term pressure but will benefit in the long term
According to the latest data from CME, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 88.9%, but Powell clearly stated: "The pace of rate cuts will strictly depend on data performance." This means that if August's CPI, non-farm payrolls, and other data do not show deterioration, a substantial 50 basis point rate cut may become a mirage.
From the ETH perspective, the current price is fluctuating around $4116, with the RSI indicator at a relative low of 39.62 (6-day), indicating short-term oversold conditions. However, technical indicators hold hidden nuances:
BOLL indicator: Upper band at $4334, lower band at $4043, the current price is close to the lower band, if it breaks the psychological level of $4000, it may trigger technical selling.
Key level competition: Support level at $4005, resistance level at $4254, and the closing price of $4116 is exactly in the "bull-bear balance zone", so caution is warranted for potential market changes.
Signal two: The liquidity feast may be delayed, but institutions have already positioned themselves
Although the extent of the rate cut is in question, global funds have begun to "vote with their feet". Data shows:
ETH supply is tightening: since the rate cut in September 2024, the monthly inflation rate of ETH has decreased from 60,000 to 30,000-40,000 coins, with potential deflation appearing in early 2025.
Layer 2 explosion: Weekly active addresses have surpassed 9.65 million, expected to grow tenfold within the year, and the transaction fee burn mechanism continues to reduce supply.
Institutional holdings: Tether increased its BTC holdings by $700 million in the first quarter, bringing total holdings to $8 billion, indicating long-term bullish sentiment.
Signal three: September may become a watershed for "rate cut trading"
Historical experience shows that the crypto market's response to rate cuts follows a "three-phase pattern":
Expectation phase (three months before the rate cut): Funds are positioning ahead of time, ETH surged by 16% from July to September 2024 due to rate cut expectations.
Realization phase (after the first rate cut): A short-term surge followed by a correction, as seen in September 2024 when ETH rose from $2200 to $2600 before fluctuating.
Data verification phase (three months after the rate cut): If the economy soft lands, ETH may initiate a major upward wave.
The current market is at a crucial period transitioning from the "expectation phase" to the "realization phase". If there is a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and subsequent data shows no recession, ETH may repeat the 2024 trend, breaking through $4500 after a correction.
Operational suggestions: Three steps to respond to market changes
Short term (within 1 week): Focus on the $4000 support level; if it breaks, consider a light long position, with a stop-loss set at $3900.
Medium term (1 month): If ETH stabilizes above the $4254 resistance level, consider increasing positions with a target of reaching $4500.
Long term (3-6 months): Pay attention to the progress of the Layer 2 ecosystem; ETH, with a staking ratio of 26%, may welcome a value reassessment due to ecosystem explosion.
Powell's "cautious rate cut" shattered the 50 basis point fantasy, but it provided a more solid foundation for ETH's rise. In the context of the delayed liquidity feast, ETH at $4100 stands at the crossroads of "expectation fulfillment" and "data verification". For investors, September is not only the month of rate cuts but also a critical window to test the Ethereum ecosystem's strength.
ETH's technical indicators show three signals: the price is close to the BOLL lower band ($4043), with $4000 being the lifeline for bulls and bears; RSI is low (39.62) suggesting oversold conditions, but the 6-day/12-day/24-day indicators show no divergence; the key level of $4116 is in a balance zone between support ($4005) and resistance ($4254).
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