For years, $BITCOIN believers have looked to the halving as the spark for every bull run. But today, a new narrative is taking over — one that places Washington politics above programmed supply shocks. Economist Alex Krüger argues the next big cycle will hinge not on the halving but on who takes the seat of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair after Jerome Powell.
🔑 Policy Over Programmed Supply
Krüger points out that the last bull run didn’t end because of weakness in Bitcoin itself, but because the Fed slammed on the brakes in 2022, draining liquidity from global markets. This time, he believes a leadership change could unlock monetary easing that has yet to be priced in.
👔 The Fed Chair Factor
Powell’s term runs until 2026, yet rumors of early candidates — such as Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett — are already surfacing. The choice matters: a dovish replacement could fuel liquidity and ignite crypto, while a hawk could choke the rally before it builds.
📊 Near-Term Watchpoints
All eyes now turn to the Jackson Hole conference (Aug 21–23) and Powell’s speech. Traders expect a firm tone ahead of September’s FOMC, while macro data (PCE, NFP, CPI, PPI) remain key drivers for both risk markets and Bitcoin’s volatility.
📉 Market Pulse
Bitcoin currently hovers in consolidation, holding support near $112K and resistance at $124K. Derivatives show caution, with volatility at two-year lows, shrinking open interest, and rising demand for protective puts — a signal of hedging against downside risk.
✅ Conclusion: Cycles Shift With Policy
According to Krüger, Bitcoin cycles don’t die when prices peak — they die when liquidity does. As 2025 approaches, the fate of $BTC may depend less on the halving and more on who writes U.S. monetary policy.